Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#298 Westlake (1-4) 105.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#77 of 108 in Division II
#18 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 43-52 A #220 Eastlake North (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 10 (69%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 35-57 A #136 Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 16 (79%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-48 A #96 Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 26 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-42 H #40 Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 30 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 34-33 H #241 North Olmsted (2-3 D2 R6), pick: L by 15 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #37 Avon (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #302 Grafton Midview (0-5 D2 R6), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #415 Lakewood (0-5 D2 R6), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #309 North Ridgeville (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #93 Amherst Steele (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 23 (91%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#17 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-6%, 2W-26%, 3W-40%, 4W-24%, 5W-4%

Playoff chance
1% now
2% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 12.00 (10.70-17.40) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.0% LWWWW 12.00 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
5.8% LLLLL 3.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% LWWWL 7.25 pts, out
13% LLWWL 6.00 pts, out
12% LWWLL 5.40 pts, out
11% LLWLL 4.20 pts, out
8.7% LWLWL 6.05 pts, out
7.2% LLLWL 4.80 pts, out
(23% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
50% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)
40% Toledo Central Catholic (5-0)
10% Avon Lake (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 97.3 (0-4, #399, D2 #91) out
W3: 97.0 (0-3, #400, D2 #92) 1% , proj. out
W2: 97.6 (0-2, #399, D2 #93) 1% , proj. out
W1: 100.5 (0-1, #361, D2 #92) 1% , proj. out
W0: 103.7 (0-0, #338, D2 #88) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 98.9 (0-10)