Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#40 Avon Lake (5-0) 132.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#10 of 108 in Division II
#3 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-15 A #288 Elyria (0-5 D1 R2), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 49-14 H #241 North Olmsted (2-3 D2 R6), pick: W by 17 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 31-28 H #37 Avon (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 42-7 A #298 Westlake (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 30 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 49-0 H #415 Lakewood (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #309 North Ridgeville (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 26 (94%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #93 Amherst Steele (5-0 D2 R6), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #136 Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #96 Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6), pick: W by 9 (71%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #302 Grafton Midview (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 24 (92%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#72 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
25.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-4%, 8W-21%, 9W-44%, 10W-32%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 72% home
99% with a win in next game, and 95% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 18.60 (14.95-24.65) 72% in, 2% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)
8W: 21.75 (19.15-27.75) 99% in, 20% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
9W: 25.95 (24.00-31.45) 100% in, 81% home, proj. #4 (#1-#7)
10W: 30.65 (29.95-32.70) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #3 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
32% WWWWW 30.65 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#3, range #1-#4) Springfield 24%

Worst realistic scenario
7.9% WLWLW 21.05 pts, 98% in, 2% home (#6, range #4-out) Amherst Steele 26%

Most likely other scenarios
17% WLWWW 25.40 pts, 100% in, 67% home (#4, range #2-#7) Avon 29%
16% WWWLW 25.85 pts, 100% in, 84% home (#4, range #2-#7) Olmsted Falls 22%
7.4% WWLWW 27.05 pts, 100% in, 95% home (#3, range #2-#6) Valley Forge 23%
4.1% WLLWW 21.70 pts, 100% in, 11% home (#5, range #4-#8) Amherst Steele 37%
3.7% WWLLW 22.20 pts, 100% in, 25% home (#5, range #3-#8) Avon 24%
2.4% WWWWL 28.90 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#3, range #1-#4) Springfield 22%
(10% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Elyria (0-5 D1 R2) over Brunswick (0-5 D1 R1)
Week 10: Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 6: Garfield Heights (5-0 D2 R5) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 6: Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17) over Geneva (2-3 D3 R9)
Week 7: Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
20% Amherst Steele (5-0)
18% Holland Springfield (4-1)
17% Avon (4-1)
15% Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1)
9% Olmsted Falls (4-1)

Championship probabilities
13% Region 6 champ
0.7% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 132.4 (4-0, #38, D2 #9) 99% (need 7-3), 78% home, proj. #3
W3: 132.6 (3-0, #36, D2 #7) 99% (need 7-3), 83% home, proj. #3
W2: 125.8 (2-0, #65, D2 #16) 77% (need 7-3), 36% home, proj. #4
W1: 125.2 (1-0, #68, D2 #15) 67% (need 7-3), 30% home, proj. #7
W0: 120.9 (0-0, #112, D2 #29) 36% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. #8
Last year 124.3 (6-4)