Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#302 Grafton Midview (0-5) 104.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#78 of 108 in Division II
#19 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-44 H #79 Lorain (3-2 D1 R2), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 30-31 A #309 North Ridgeville (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 11 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 27-33 A #241 North Olmsted (2-3 D2 R6), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 13-55 A #93 Amherst Steele (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 15 (79%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-49 H #37 Avon (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #136 Berea-Midpark (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #298 Westlake (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 8 (67%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #96 Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #415 Lakewood (0-5 D2 R6), pick: W by 12 (75%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #40 Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#15 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
3.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-10%, 1W-37%, 2W-38%, 3W-13%, 4W-2%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 11.50 (9.05-15.80) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
3.0% LWWWL 7.80 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
9.6% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
24% LLLWL 1.20 pts, out
20% LWLWL 3.00 pts, out
8.3% LWLLL 1.80 pts, out
7.7% WLLWL 4.25 pts, out
6.3% WWLWL 6.65 pts, out
3.2% LLWWL 5.45 pts, out
(18% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 106.4 (0-4, #277, D2 #74) 1% , proj. out
W3: 108.3 (0-3, #252, D2 #74) 1% , proj. out
W2: 112.0 (0-2, #201, D2 #56) 6% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 119.4 (0-1, #116, D2 #33) 30% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home, proj. out
W0: 128.6 (0-0, #59, D2 #13) 73% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home, proj. #3
Last year 131.0 (8-3)