Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#408 Greenville (3-6) 96.9

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#83 of 107 in Division III
#19 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 40-7 A #589 Eaton (0-9 D4 R16), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 49-19 H #565 Riverside Stebbins (0-9 D2 R8), pick: W by 22 (87%)
Sep 06 (W3) L 16-58 A #163 Dayton Chaminade Julienne (7-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 18 (83%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-35 A #106 Xenia (6-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 14 (78%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-34 H #547 West Carrollton (1-8 D3 R12), pick: W by 21 (89%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 21-37 H #132 Vandalia Butler (6-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 15 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 7-42 A #169 Piqua (6-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 7-43 H #216 Tipp City Tippecanoe (4-5 D3 R12), pick: L by 12 (77%)
Oct 19 (W9) L 12-48 H #45 Troy (8-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 29 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #188 Sidney (4-5 D2 R8), pick: L by 18 (87%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#42 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
3.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-87%, 4W-13%

Playoff scenarios
13% W 5.95 pts, out
87% L 3.05 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 96.9 (3-6, #408, D3 #83) out
W8: 97.0 (3-5, #410, D3 #83) out
W7: 98.2 (3-4, #398, D3 #81) 1% , proj. out
W6: 98.9 (3-3, #386, D3 #78) 1% , proj. out
W5: 100.2 (3-2, #361, D3 #72) 1% , proj. out
W4: 103.8 (2-2, #319, D3 #61) 2% , proj. out
W3: 106.4 (2-1, #279, D3 #56) 6% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 109.1 (2-0, #234, D3 #50) 18% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 108.0 (1-0, #252, D3 #55) 18% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 103.7 (0-0, #335, D3 #74) 4% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 101.1 (2-8)