Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#115 Holland Springfield (4-1) 120.5

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#33 of 108 in Division II
#7 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 30-29 H #161 Fremont Ross (2-3 D2 R6), pick: W by 1 (52%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 66-0 H #459 Toledo Bowsher (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 19 (83%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 33-53 A #64 Lewis Center Olentangy (1-4 D2 R8), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 31-26 H #189 Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-12 A #275 Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #461 Sylvania Southview (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #300 Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #262 Perrysburg (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #495 Maumee (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #42 Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 13 (78%)

Lists on which the team appears
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#62 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
21.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-5%, 7W-26%, 8W-56%, 9W-13%

Playoff chance
93% now (bubble if 6-4), 13% home
93% with a win in next game, and 83% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 16.35 (12.00-22.30) 47% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 18.60 (14.95-25.65) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)
8W: 21.05 (18.00-27.50) 99% in, 5% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
9W: 26.30 (23.85-28.70) 100% in, 77% home, proj. #4 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
13% WWWWW 26.30 pts, 100% in, 77% home (#4, range #1-#7) Anthony Wayne 22%

Worst realistic scenario
2.0% WLLWL 15.48 pts, 31% in (out, range #6-out) Central Catholic 49%

Most likely other scenarios
49% WWWWL 20.95 pts, 99% in, 1% home (#6, range #4-out) Anthony Wayne 27%
11% WWLWL 18.65 pts, 84% in (#7, range #5-out) Anthony Wayne 38%
8.6% WLWWL 17.70 pts, 75% in (#8, range #5-out) Anthony Wayne 41%
3.1% WWLWW 24.35 pts, 100% in, 37% home (#5, range #2-#7) Avon 25%
3.0% LWWWL 19.35 pts, 94% in (#7, range #5-out) Anthony Wayne 36%
2.4% WLWWW 23.45 pts, 100% in, 21% home (#5, range #3-#7) Avon 28%
(7% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Fremont Ross (2-3 D2 R6) over Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6)
Week 7: Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 10: Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 9: Toledo Bowsher (1-4 D2 R6) over Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 6: Garfield Heights (5-0 D2 R5) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
28% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)
21% Avon (4-1)
19% Avon Lake (5-0)
15% Toledo Central Catholic (5-0)
10% Amherst Steele (5-0)

Championship probabilities
1.1% Region 6 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 120.3 (3-1, #118, D2 #34) 81% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home, proj. #5
W3: 115.9 (2-1, #162, D2 #47) 44% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 121.2 (2-0, #105, D2 #30) 81% (need 7-3), 34% home, proj. #5
W1: 119.7 (1-0, #114, D2 #32) 68% (need 7-3), 28% home, proj. #5
W0: 118.2 (0-0, #146, D2 #45) 43% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home, proj. #6
Last year 119.8 (6-4)