Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#512 Mansfield Madison Comprehensive (1-4) 88.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#95 of 107 in Division III
#21 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) L 8-48 A #267 Shelby (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 26 (89%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-42 H #388 Caledonia River Valley (2-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 40-0 H #641 Akron North (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 15 (79%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 3-35 H #130 Wooster (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 25 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 13-68 A #141 Millersburg West Holmes (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 31 (96%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #127 Ashland (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 28 (95%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #221 Columbus St Charles (2-3 D2 R7), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #387 Mount Vernon (2-3 D2 R7), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #359 Lexington (1-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #239 Mansfield (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 23 (91%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#60 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
3.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-43%, 2W-42%, 3W-14%, 4W-2%

Best realistic scenario
2.7% LLWLW 6.25 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
43% LLLLL 1.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% LLWLL 3.40 pts, out
12% LLLWL 2.80 pts, out
6.1% LLLLW 4.00 pts, out
4.6% LLWWL 5.10 pts, out
3.8% LWLLL 3.60 pts, out
(10% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.6 (1-3, #534, D3 #95) out
W3: 87.3 (1-2, #518, D3 #95) 1% , proj. out
W2: 87.6 (0-2, #523, D3 #95) 1% , proj. out
W1: 95.4 (0-1, #434, D3 #88) 1% , proj. out
W0: 97.6 (0-0, #436, D3 #89) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 89.9 (0-10)