Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#495 Maumee (0-5) 89.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#92 of 107 in Division III
#18 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-14 A #459 Toledo Bowsher (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 15 (76%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-21 A #282 Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 5 (59%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-44 H #276 Pemberville Eastwood (3-2 D5 R18), pick: L by 19 (84%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-37 A #275 Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 16 (81%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-27 H #300 Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #42 Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #461 Sylvania Southview (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #189 Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 20 (88%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #115 Holland Springfield (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #262 Perrysburg (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 12 (76%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#68 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
1.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-46%, 1W-43%, 2W-10%, 3W-1%

Best realistic scenario
3.1% LWWLL 4.80 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
46% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
28% LWLLL 1.00 pts, out
6.9% LLLLW 1.80 pts, out
4.9% LLWLL 3.30 pts, out
4.6% LWLLW 3.30 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 93.6 (0-4, #451, D3 #87) 1% , proj. out
W3: 96.4 (0-3, #414, D3 #84) 1% , proj. out
W2: 97.5 (0-2, #401, D3 #81) 1% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 100.8 (0-1, #353, D3 #75) 5% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 111.6 (0-0, #230, D3 #53) 37% (need 6-4), 13% home, proj. out
Last year 116.4 (6-4)