Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#78 Medina Highland (4-1) 125.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#23 of 108 in Division II
#9 of 27 in Region 7
Eitel team page
Region 7 projections
Region 7 playoff probabilities
Region 7 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 28-7 A #256 Brunswick (0-5 D1 R1), pick: W by 1 (51%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-24 A #81 Medina (2-3 D1 R1), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 45-43 H #178 North Royalton (2-3 D2 R6), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 63-23 H #213 Kent Roosevelt (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-14 H #139 Richfield Revere (3-2 D3 R9), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #176 Uniontown Green (1-4 D2 R7), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #57 Aurora (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #182 Copley (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 10 (73%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #196 Tallmadge (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 8 (69%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #49 Barberton (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 6 (64%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#40 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
19.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R7 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-6%, 6W-23%, 7W-39%, 8W-25%, 9W-6%

Playoff chance
30% now (need 8-2), 8% home
34% with a win in next game, and 19% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 16.35 (12.25-22.70) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 19.50 (15.25-26.20) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 23.40 (19.70-29.35) 75% in, 11% home, proj. #7 (#1-out)
9W: 28.00 (25.65-31.25) 100% in, 92% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
5.7% WWWWW 28.00 pts, 100% in, 92% home (#3, range #1-#7) New Albany 14%

Worst realistic scenario
2.2% LLWLL 13.95 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
17% WLWWL 18.20 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
11% WWWWL 22.75 pts, 61% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) Massillon Washington 35%
9.6% WLWWW 23.40 pts, 79% in, 7% home (#7, range #2-out) Massillon Washington 24%
6.3% WLWLL 15.60 pts, out
5.4% LLWWL 16.35 pts, out
5.3% WLLWL 15.33 pts, out
(38% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Brunswick (0-5 D1 R1) over Elyria (0-5 D1 R2)
Week 6: Granville (4-1 D3 R11) over Pataskala Licking Heights (4-1 D2 R7)
Week 6: North Royalton (2-3 D2 R6) over Hudson (1-4 D2 R5)
Week 9: Johnstown-Monroe (4-1 D5 R19) over Pataskala Licking Heights (4-1 D2 R7)
Week 7: Thornville Sheridan (5-0 D3 R11) over Dresden Tri-Valley (5-0 D2 R7)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
23% Massillon Washington (5-0)
18% Wadsworth (5-0)
15% Barberton (5-0)
10% Dover (4-1)
8% Dresden Tri-Valley (5-0)

Championship probabilities
0.8% Region 7 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 123.5 (3-1, #91, D2 #24) 22% (need 8-2), 6% home, proj. out
W3: 122.3 (2-1, #94, D2 #24) 27% (need 8-2), 8% home, proj. out
W2: 126.1 (1-1, #62, D2 #14) 45% (bubble if 7-3), 15% home, proj. #7
W1: 133.0 (1-0, #34, D2 #7) 87% (need 7-3), 63% home, proj. #2
W0: 129.2 (0-0, #56, D2 #12) 53% (need 7-3), 29% home, proj. #4
Last year 133.2 (9-3)