Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#145 Sidney (3-2) 117.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#45 of 108 in Division II
#13 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-35 A #59 St Marys Memorial (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Aug 30 (W2) W 31-28 H #207 Bellefontaine (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 38-6 A #336 Dayton Belmont (1-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 10 (71%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-41 H #16 Trotwood-Madison (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 21 (88%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 40-12 A #463 Fairborn (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #163 Piqua (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 2 (56%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #171 Tipp City Tippecanoe (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #61 Troy (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #160 Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #362 Greenville (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 15 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#43 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
17.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-9%, 5W-28%, 6W-37%, 7W-21%, 8W-4%

Playoff chance
22% now (need 7-3), 3% home
32% with a win in next game, and 9% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 17.95 (14.25-21.55) 8% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 21.50 (18.05-24.90) 73% in, 3% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
8W: 25.80 (23.35-27.55) 100% in, 67% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)

Best realistic scenario
3.9% WWWWW 25.80 pts, 100% in, 67% home (#4, range #1-#8) Troy 16%

Worst realistic scenario
5.3% LLLLW 10.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
11% WWLWW 20.80 pts, 59% in, 1% home (#8, range #3-out) Kings 32%
10% WLLWW 17.55 pts, 4% in (out, range #6-out) Kings 45%
8.7% WWLLW 17.35 pts, 3% in (out, range #6-out) Kings 47%
7.9% LWLWW 17.45 pts, 5% in (out, range #6-out) Kings 67%
7.8% WLLLW 14.10 pts, out
7.4% LLLWW 14.15 pts, out
(37% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Bellefontaine (3-2 D3 R11) over New Carlisle Tecumseh (3-2 D2 R8)
Week 6: Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Indianapolis Bishop Chatard IN (6-0 D4) over Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Milford (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Fairborn (0-5 D2 R8) over Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
26% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
16% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
12% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
12% Troy (4-1)
9% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 117.2 (2-2, #151, D2 #45) 13% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W3: 119.0 (2-1, #128, D2 #35) 29% (need 7-3), 5% home, proj. out
W2: 116.4 (1-1, #154, D2 #43) 20% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 110.9 (0-1, #215, D2 #60) 7% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 118.9 (0-0, #131, D2 #38) 38% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. out
Last year 126.5 (10-2)