Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#275 Sylvania Northview (3-2) 106.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#73 of 108 in Division II
#16 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) L 12-20 H #282 Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6), pick: W by 21 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 20-13 A #352 Oregon Clay (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 24-6 A #459 Toledo Bowsher (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 7 (64%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 37-7 H #495 Maumee (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 16 (81%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 12-42 H #115 Holland Springfield (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #300 Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #189 Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #42 Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 20 (88%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #262 Perrysburg (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #461 Sylvania Southview (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 15 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#96 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
9.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-3%, 4W-21%, 5W-39%, 6W-28%, 7W-8%

Playoff chance
2% now
3% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 12.25 (8.90-18.10) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 15.17 (12.70-20.65) 15% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
5.5% WWLWW 14.65 pts, 5% in (out, range #7-out) Central Catholic 69%

Worst realistic scenario
3.1% LLLLL 5.15 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% WLLLW 9.45 pts, out
13% LLLLW 6.65 pts, out
12% LLLWW 8.50 pts, out
12% WLLWW 11.65 pts, out
6.6% WWLLW 12.75 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.5% LWLLW 9.95 pts, out
(28% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 9: Mayfield (2-3 D2 R5) over Willoughby South (2-3 D2 R5)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
58% Toledo Central Catholic (5-0)
14% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)
11% Avon Lake (5-0)
9% Amherst Steele (5-0)
5% Avon (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 110.1 (3-1, #221, D2 #65) 11% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 110.8 (2-1, #213, D2 #61) 18% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 108.6 (1-1, #240, D2 #66) 14% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 102.2 (0-1, #330, D2 #89) 3% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 114.5 (0-0, #194, D2 #56) 39% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. out
Last year 120.9 (8-3)