Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#461 Sylvania Southview (1-4) 93.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#98 of 108 in Division II
#25 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 17-14 H Millington MI (4-1 D6)
Aug 31 (W2) L 21-49 A #161 Fremont Ross (2-3 D2 R6), pick: L by 11 (72%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 21-24 H #372 Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 10-37 A #42 Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0 D2 R6), pick: L by 32 (96%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-21 A #262 Perrysburg (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #115 Holland Springfield (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #495 Maumee (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 5 (61%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #300 Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #189 Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #275 Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 15 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#69 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
3.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-19%, 2W-46%, 3W-27%, 4W-7%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WWLLL 8.05 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
19% LLLLL 2.80 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
31% LWLLL 3.75 pts, out
8.4% LWWLL 6.30 pts, out
7.5% LWLLW 6.75 pts, out
5.8% LLWLL 5.70 pts, out
5.6% LWLWL 6.90 pts, out
4.7% LLLLW 5.97 pts, out
(15% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.7 (1-3, #410, D2 #92) 1% , proj. out
W3: 94.3 (1-2, #441, D2 #98) 1% , proj. out
W2: 99.3 (1-1, #378, D2 #89) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 103.0 (1-0, #320, D2 #86) 6% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 105.0 (0-0, #317, D2 #85) 8% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 101.1 (2-8)