Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#583 Toledo Rogers (0-5) 80.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#99 of 107 in Division III
#23 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 12-48 A #352 Oregon Clay (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 29 (91%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 18-20 A #500 Delta (2-3 D6 R22), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 24-25 H #483 Swanton (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 18 (84%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-63 H #73 Sandusky (5-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 33 (97%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-36 H #149 Lima Central Catholic (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #372 Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 04 (W7) A #459 Toledo Bowsher (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #542 Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #322 Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #282 Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 28 (95%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#63 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 1-9
1.21 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-33%, 1W-46%, 2W-18%, 3W-3%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
3.8% WLWLL 5.08 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
33% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
27% LLWLL 1.11 pts, out
8.2% LWLLL 1.82 pts, out
6.8% LWWLL 2.94 pts, out
4.5% WLLLL 3.92 pts, out
4.0% LLLWL 2.84 pts, out
2.9% LLWWL 3.44 pts, out
(10% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 79.7 (0-4, #586, D3 #100) out
W3: 82.5 (0-3, #570, D3 #99) 1% , proj. out
W2: 79.6 (0-2, #596, D3 #100) 1% , proj. out
W1: 81.8 (0-1, #579, D3 #102) 1% , proj. out
W0: 83.6 (0-0, #591, D3 #101) 1% , proj. out
Last year 78.2 (0-10)