Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#372 Toledo Scott (4-1) 99.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#78 of 107 in Division III
#16 of 26 in Region 10
Eitel team page
Region 10 projections
Region 10 playoff probabilities
Region 10 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 50-35 H Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard MI (0-5 D5)
Aug 31 (W2) W 45-13 A #516 Fostoria (2-3 D5 R18), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 24-21 A #461 Sylvania Southview (1-4 D2 R6), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 15 (W4) W 27-6 A #565 Akron Kenmore-Garfield (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-31 A #183 Huron (4-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #583 Toledo Rogers (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #322 Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2), pick: L by 1 (53%)
Oct 11 (W8) A #282 Toledo Waite (4-1 D2 R6), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #542 Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 25 (W10) H #459 Toledo Bowsher (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 8 (67%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#101 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 7-3
11.02 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R10 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-5%, 6W-22%, 7W-40%, 8W-28%, 9W-6%

Playoff chance
19% now (bubble if 8-2), 1% home
20% with a win in next game, and 14% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 8.81 (5.42-14.66) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 11.02 (7.74-17.43) 7% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 14.05 (10.61-19.65) 39% in, 0% home, proj. out
9W: 17.68 (15.66-20.40) 96% in, 3% home, proj. #6 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
5.7% WWWWW 17.68 pts, 96% in, 3% home (#6, range #4-out) Glenville 21%

Worst realistic scenario
2.4% WLLLL 6.89 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% WLLWW 10.32 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
14% WWLWW 13.19 pts, 21% in (out, range #6-out) Bay 33%
9.0% WLLWL 8.05 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
8.0% WLWWW 14.85 pts, 50% in (out, range #5-out) Sandusky 37%
6.9% WWLWL 10.87 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
5.1% WLLLW 9.16 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(30% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10) over Clyde (3-2 D3 R10)
Week 6: Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9) over Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10)
Week 10: Bellevue (2-3 D4 R14) over Clyde (3-2 D3 R10)
Week 7: Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6) over Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10)
Week 9: Cleveland Benedictine (2-3 D2 R5) over Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
29% Sandusky (5-0)
25% Bay Village Bay (5-0)
16% Norwalk (4-1)
13% Tiffin Columbian (4-1)
10% Cleveland Glenville (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 101.4 (4-0, #349, D3 #70) 28% (bubble if 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W3: 99.1 (3-0, #380, D3 #77) 22% (bubble if 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 94.6 (2-0, #436, D3 #89) 13% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 87.1 (1-0, #533, D3 #95) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 89.0 (0-0, #534, D3 #94) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 85.0 (1-9)