Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#282 Toledo Waite (4-1) 106.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#74 of 108 in Division II
#17 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 20-12 A #275 Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6), pick: L by 21 (84%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 21-6 H #495 Maumee (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 30-28 H #352 Oregon Clay (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Sep 15 (W4) L 20-67 A #149 Lima Central Catholic (5-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 38-0 H Detroit Leadership Academy MI (2-3 D7)
Sep 27 (W6) H #322 Toledo Start (1-4 D1 R2), pick: W by 6 (64%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #542 Toledo Woodward (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 11 (W8) H #372 Toledo Scott (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #459 Toledo Bowsher (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 12 (75%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #583 Toledo Rogers (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 28 (95%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams
Biggest upsets
Playoff streaks & droughts
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#100 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 8-2
16.80 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected #8 seed in R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-6%, 7W-25%, 8W-43%, 9W-26%

Playoff chance
45% now (bubble if 8-2), 1% home
58% with a win in next game, and 24% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 11.26 (7.74-17.23) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 13.90 (9.46-20.18) 10% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 16.80 (12.72-21.13) 45% in, 0% home, proj. out
9W: 19.74 (16.94-22.76) 89% in, 1% home, proj. #7 (#4-out)

Best realistic scenario
26% WWWWW 19.74 pts, 89% in, 1% home (#7, range #4-out) Central Catholic 32%

Worst realistic scenario
2.7% LWLLW 10.14 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
18% LWWWW 16.80 pts, 47% in (out, range #5-out) Central Catholic 54%
11% WWLWW 15.42 pts, 21% in (out, range #6-out) Central Catholic 72%
8.7% WWWLW 17.36 pts, 53% in (#8, range #5-out) Central Catholic 57%
7.8% LWLWW 12.47 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.1% LWWLW 14.52 pts, 10% in (out, range #6-out) Central Catholic 70%
3.7% WLWWW 18.43 pts, 73% in (#8, range #5-out) Central Catholic 52%
(16% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Avon Lake (5-0 D2 R6) over Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 7: Rocky River (4-1 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 10: Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10) over Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1 D2 R6)
Week 9: Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6) over Perrysburg (1-4 D2 R6)
Week 6: Toledo St John's Jesuit (3-2 D2 R6) over Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
45% Toledo Central Catholic (5-0)
28% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0)
13% Avon Lake (5-0)
7% Avon (4-1)
5% Amherst Steele (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.5 (3-1, #247, D2 #69) 55% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. #7
W3: 111.4 (3-0, #209, D2 #59) 81% (bubble if 7-3), 13% home, proj. #6
W2: 109.5 (2-0, #227, D2 #62) 59% (need 8-2), 10% home, proj. #7
W1: 103.8 (1-0, #309, D2 #81) 25% (bubble if 8-2), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 95.5 (0-0, #463, D2 #102) 3% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 93.6 (3-7)