Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#42 Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (5-0) 132.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#11 of 108 in Division II
#4 of 27 in Region 6
Eitel team page
Region 6 projections
Region 6 playoff probabilities
Region 6 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-10 H #135 Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6), pick: W by 11 (71%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 31-14 H #142 Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 14 (76%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 34-21 A #170 Clyde (3-2 D3 R10), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 37-10 H #461 Sylvania Southview (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 32 (96%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-10 A #189 Bowling Green (2-3 D3 R10), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #495 Maumee (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #262 Perrysburg (1-4 D2 R6), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #275 Sylvania Northview (3-2 D2 R6), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #300 Napoleon (3-2 D4 R14), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #115 Holland Springfield (4-1 D2 R6), pick: W by 13 (78%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Playoff quirks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#56 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 10-0
32.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #2 seed in R6 playoffs

Win probabilities:
8W-5%, 9W-32%, 10W-63%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 8-2), 96% home
99% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
8W: 24.45 (20.25-30.65) 100% in, 52% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
9W: 27.90 (23.85-33.05) 100% in, 95% home, proj. #3 (#1-#6)
10W: 32.15 (28.40-35.50) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
63% WWWWW 32.15 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Springfield 26%

Worst realistic scenario
18% WWWWL 27.20 pts, 100% in, 90% home (#3, range #1-#6) Springfield 21%

Most likely other scenarios
5.5% WWLWW 28.50 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Springfield 30%
4.7% WWWLW 28.95 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Springfield 31%
3.7% WLWWW 29.60 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) Springfield 31%
(6% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Olmsted Falls (4-1 D2 R6) over Amherst Steele (5-0 D2 R6)
Week 6: Toledo Whitmer (4-1 D1 R2) over Toledo Central Catholic (5-0 D2 R6)
Week 10: Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6) over Fremont Ross (2-3 D2 R6)
Week 6: Toledo St Francis de Sales (3-2 D2 R6) over Toledo St John's Jesuit (3-2 D2 R6)
Week 10: Tiffin Columbian (4-1 D3 R10) over Norwalk (4-1 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
26% Holland Springfield (4-1)
14% Parma Heights Valley Forge (4-1)
13% Toledo Waite (4-1)
11% Amherst Steele (5-0)
10% Olmsted Falls (4-1)

Championship probabilities
16% Region 6 champ
0.9% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 132.0 (4-0, #42, D2 #11) 99% (need 7-3), 94% home, proj. #2
W3: 130.4 (3-0, #46, D2 #10) 99% (need 7-3), 92% home, proj. #2
W2: 125.9 (2-0, #63, D2 #15) 93% (need 7-3), 63% home, proj. #3
W1: 123.7 (1-0, #78, D2 #19) 83% (bubble if 6-4), 48% home, proj. #4
W0: 122.4 (0-0, #97, D2 #24) 66% (bubble if 6-4), 34% home, proj. #5
Last year 129.8 (9-2)