Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#100 Uniontown Lake (3-2) 122.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#30 of 108 in Division II
#10 of 27 in Region 7
Eitel team page
Region 7 projections
Region 7 playoff probabilities
Region 7 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 76-6 H #552 Columbus West (0-5 D2 R7), pick: W by 12 (72%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 41-21 H #74 Dover (4-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 35-7 A #182 Copley (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 28-41 A #104 Louisville (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 11 (72%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 17-31 A #58 Massillon Jackson (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #17 Canton McKinley (5-0 D1 R1), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #70 North Canton Hoover (3-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #36 Massillon Perry (5-0 D2 R7), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #251 Canton GlenOak (1-4 D1 R1), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #176 Uniontown Green (1-4 D2 R7), pick: W by 16 (82%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#31 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
12.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R7 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-2%, 4W-16%, 5W-40%, 6W-32%, 7W-9%

Playoff chance
3% now
15% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 16.55 (11.55-24.15) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 20.80 (17.45-27.35) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.7% WWLWW 20.75 pts, 18% in (out, range #6-out) Massillon Washington 51%

Worst realistic scenario
9.2% LLLWL 10.15 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
23% LLLWW 12.00 pts, out
15% LWLWW 15.50 pts, out
7.0% LLWWW 16.90 pts, out
6.1% LWLWL 14.00 pts, out
4.9% LWWWW 20.40 pts, 17% in (out, range #6-out) Massillon Washington 61%
4.8% WLLWW 17.25 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(27% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 9: Millersburg West Holmes (5-0 D3 R9) over Ashland (4-1 D2 R7)
Week 10: Columbus West (0-5 D2 R7) over Columbus Briggs (1-4 D2 R8)
Week 7: Copley (2-3 D2 R5) over Tallmadge (2-3 D3 R9)
Week 9: Columbus Marion-Franklin (4-1 D3 R11) over Columbus Walnut Ridge (4-1 D2 R7)
Week 9: Johnstown-Monroe (4-1 D5 R19) over Pataskala Licking Heights (4-1 D2 R7)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
38% Massillon Washington (5-0)
20% Wadsworth (5-0)
15% Barberton (5-0)
8% Dover (4-1)
7% Dresden Tri-Valley (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 124.6 (3-1, #83, D2 #21) 14% (need 8-2), 3% home, proj. out
W3: 128.0 (3-0, #58, D2 #13) 39% (need 8-2), 13% home, proj. out
W2: 121.2 (2-0, #104, D2 #29) 16% (need 8-2), 4% home, proj. out
W1: 115.3 (1-0, #156, D2 #44) 7% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 115.8 (0-0, #177, D2 #51) 6% (need 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
Last year 111.5 (1-9)