Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#217 Youngstown East (3-2) 111.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#60 of 108 in Division II
#15 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 6-26 A #86 Youngstown Boardman (4-1 D2 R5), pick: L by 23 (86%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 34-7 H #337 Youngstown Ursuline (0-5 D4 R13), pick: L by 14 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 35-12 H #451 Ashtabula Lakeside (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 27-12 H #382 Niles McKinley (1-4 D3 R9), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-13 H #69 Austintown-Fitch (4-1 D1 R1), pick: L by 15 (80%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #350 Warren Howland (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #60 Poland Seminary (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #41 Canfield (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #45 Warren G Harding (3-2 D2 R5), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #94 Hubbard (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 15 (81%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#77 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
5.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-16%, 4W-49%, 5W-28%, 6W-6%

Playoff chance
4% now (bubble if 6-4), 1% home
5% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 10.50 (7.70-16.05) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 15.15 (12.60-19.65) 44% in, 1% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
5.1% WLWLL 10.80 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
16% LLLLL 4.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
38% WLLLL 5.70 pts, out
9.3% WLLLW 10.40 pts, out
5.9% WWLLL 10.40 pts, out
4.6% LLLLW 9.00 pts, out
4.6% WLLWL 9.95 pts, out
2.5% LLWLL 9.70 pts, out
(14% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12) over Piqua (3-2 D3 R12)
Week 7: Cincinnati Sycamore (3-2 D1 R4) over Fairfield (4-1 D1 R4)
Week 6: Hamilton New Miami (2-3 D7 R28) over St Bernard-Elmwood Place (1-4 D6 R24)
Week 6: Tallmadge (2-3 D3 R9) over Kent Roosevelt (2-3 D2 R5)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
54% Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0)
20% Maple Heights (5-0)
13% Garfield Heights (5-0)
3% Painesville Riverside (4-1)
3% Youngstown Boardman (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 109.5 (3-1, #232, D2 #67) 6% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 109.4 (2-1, #234, D2 #66) 9% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 108.2 (1-1, #252, D2 #69) 5% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 98.3 (0-1, #387, D2 #95) 1% , proj. out
W0: 100.6 (0-0, #385, D2 #94) 1% , proj. out
Last year 98.7 (1-9)