Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#164 Ashville Teays Valley (3-2) 115.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#52 of 108 in Division II
#15 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-14 A #143 Chillicothe (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 7 (63%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 35-0 H #332 Logan (1-4 D2 R7), pick: W by 12 (73%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-14 H #165 Canal Winchester (4-1 D2 R7), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 13 (W4) W 35-10 H #210 Bloom-Carroll (4-1 D4 R15), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 54-0 A #572 Circleville Logan Elm (0-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #462 Lancaster Fairfield Union (2-3 D4 R15), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #508 Columbus Bexley (1-4 D4 R15), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #371 Columbus Hamilton Township (1-4 D3 R11), pick: W by 14 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #614 Circleville (0-5 D4 R15), pick: W by 33 (97%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #278 Amanda-Clearcreek (5-0 D5 R19), pick: W by 10 (72%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#82 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
15.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
5W-1%, 6W-11%, 7W-41%, 8W-47%

Playoff chance
3% now
4% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 15.00 (12.05-19.55) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 18.40 (16.35-21.10) 7% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
47% WWWWW 18.40 pts, 7% in (out, range #5-out) Kings 48%

Worst realistic scenario
2.1% LWWWL 11.80 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
23% WWWWL 14.15 pts, out
11% WWLWW 15.95 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.2% WWLWL 11.85 pts, out
3.7% LWWWW 15.95 pts, out
3.2% WLWWW 17.08 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(5% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Bloom-Carroll (4-1 D4 R15) over Gahanna Columbus Academy (3-2 D5 R19)
Week 10: Milford (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Turpin (3-2 D2 R8)
Week 6: Milford (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 10: Lancaster Fairfield Union (2-3 D4 R15) over Baltimore Liberty Union (0-5 D5 R19)
Week 6: Columbus Bexley (1-4 D4 R15) over Baltimore Liberty Union (0-5 D5 R19)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
49% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
16% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
12% Troy (4-1)
7% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)
5% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 115.6 (2-2, #167, D2 #52) 3% , proj. out
W3: 108.4 (1-2, #247, D2 #72) 1% , proj. out
W2: 113.2 (1-1, #183, D2 #52) 18% (need 9-1), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 110.4 (0-1, #222, D2 #63) 18% (bubble if 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 114.0 (0-0, #202, D2 #60) 52% (bubble if 7-3), 18% home, proj. #7
Last year 115.9 (8-2)