Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#427 Cincinnati Aiken (6-3) 95.9

Updated 22-Oct-2018 5:56PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#66 of 107 in Division IV
#16 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 42-0 A #676 Cincinnati North College Hill (1-8 D5 R20), pick: W by 5 (59%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 6-40 A #189 Cincinnati Walnut Hills (3-6 D1 R4), pick: L by 14 (76%)
Sep 08 (W3) W 26-17 A #165 Cincinnati Indian Hill (8-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 30 (94%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-19 A #396 Cincinnati Western Hills (6-3 D1 R4), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 30-6 H #630 Cincinnati Shroder (3-6 D4 R16), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 18-12 A #474 Cincinnati Woodward (3-6 D3 R12), pick: W by 2 (54%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 48-7 H Grant County KY (2-7 D2)
Oct 13 (W8) L 6-40 A #335 Lucas (7-2 D7 R27), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Oct 20 (W9) W 26-0 H #616 Cincinnati Hughes (3-6 D3 R12), pick: W by 21 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #173 Cincinnati Taft (7-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 20 (89%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#93 of 107 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 6-4
14.06 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-89%, 7W-11%

Playoff chance
16% now (need 7-3)
100% with a win in next game, and 6% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 14.06 (13.10-15.07) 6% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 18.55 (17.59-19.56) 100% in, 0% home, proj. #7 (#6-#8)

Playoff scenarios
11% W 18.55 pts, 100% in (#7, range #6-#8) Clinton-Massie 58%
89% L 14.06 pts, 6% in (out, range #8-out) Clinton-Massie 65%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Mount Orab Western Brown (3-6 D2 R8) over Batavia (6-3 D4 R16)
Week 10: Cincinnati Indian Hill (8-1 D4 R16) over Cincinnati Wyoming (9-0 D4 R16)
Week 10: Springfield Shawnee (5-4 D4 R16) over Plain City Jonathan Alder (6-3 D4 R16)
Week 10: St Paris Graham Local (2-7 D4 R16) over Springfield Northwestern (6-3 D4 R16)
Week 10: New Carlisle Tecumseh (5-4 D2 R8) over Springfield Kenton Ridge (5-4 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
61% Clarksville Clinton-Massie (8-1)
21% Cincinnati Wyoming (9-0)
18% Cincinnati Indian Hill (8-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 95.9 (6-3, #427, D4 #66) 16% (need 7-3), proj. out
W8: 94.8 (5-3, #438, D4 #67) 33% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. #8
W7: 97.9 (5-2, #400, D4 #61) 58% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. #8
W6: 97.5 (4-2, #403, D4 #59) 47% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. #8
W5: 95.6 (3-2, #433, D4 #66) 17% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W4: 96.6 (2-2, #412, D4 #61) 33% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. #8
W3: 104.9 (2-1, #301, D4 #40) 78% (need 7-3), 27% home, proj. #6
W2: 92.1 (1-1, #478, D4 #75) 11% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 94.4 (1-0, #451, D4 #69) 28% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 92.2 (0-0, #505, D4 #83) 18% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 99.4 (8-2)