Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#89 Cincinnati Anderson (4-1) 124.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#26 of 108 in Division II
#8 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 34-25 N #205 Cincinnati Mount Healthy (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 9 (67%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 36-31 H #231 Hamilton (0-5 D1 R4), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 35-3 H #126 Harrison (2-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 14-35 A #39 Kings Mills Kings (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 47-12 A #513 Cincinnati Withrow (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 31 (96%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #111 Milford (3-2 D1 R4), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #175 Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4), pick: W by 8 (69%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #117 Cincinnati Turpin (3-2 D2 R8), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #270 Cincinnati Walnut Hills (1-4 D1 R4), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #228 Loveland (1-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 10 (73%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#55 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
22.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #6 seed in R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-13%, 7W-32%, 8W-36%, 9W-17%

Playoff chance
57% now (need 8-2), 14% home
76% with a win in next game, and 30% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 15.45 (11.70-21.00) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 18.70 (14.30-24.80) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 22.15 (18.40-27.10) 87% in, 9% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
9W: 25.90 (22.85-29.00) 99% in, 62% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)

Best realistic scenario
17% WWWWW 25.90 pts, 99% in, 62% home (#4, range #1-out) Troy 17%

Worst realistic scenario
3.3% LLLWW 13.65 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
11% LWWWW 21.40 pts, 82% in, 2% home (#7, range #3-out) Kings 31%
9.8% WWLWW 21.70 pts, 78% in, 4% home (#7, range #2-out) Kings 27%
7.6% WLWWW 22.70 pts, 94% in, 10% home (#6, range #2-out) Kings 19%
6.9% LWLWW 17.20 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)
5.5% LLWWW 18.25 pts, 16% in (out, range #6-out) Kings 43%
5.2% WWWWL 24.00 pts, 98% in, 23% home (#5, range #2-out) Troy 19%
(34% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Harrison (2-3 D2 R8) over Morrow Little Miami (5-0 D2 R8)
Week 7: Hamilton (0-5 D1 R4) over Middletown (1-4 D1 R4)
Week 10: Hilliard Darby (3-2 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Cincinnati Mount Healthy (2-3 D3 R12) over Campbell County KY (4-1 D2)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
20% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
17% Troy (4-1)
15% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
12% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
11% Chillicothe (4-1)

Championship probabilities
2.5% Region 8 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 124.3 (3-1, #84, D2 #22) 57% (need 8-2), 14% home, proj. #7
W3: 128.6 (3-0, #55, D2 #12) 88% (bubble if 7-3), 50% home, proj. #6
W2: 123.4 (2-0, #88, D2 #24) 62% (bubble if 7-3), 27% home, proj. #8
W1: 124.1 (1-0, #74, D2 #18) 70% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home, proj. #5
W0: 125.1 (0-0, #77, D2 #17) 73% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home, proj. #3
Last year 133.2 (10-2)