Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#616 Cincinnati Hughes (3-6) 75.4

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#103 of 107 in Division III
#26 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 14-36 A #437 Cincinnati Deer Park (6-3 D6 R24), pick: W by 6 (62%)
Aug 30 (W2) W 8-6 H #615 Dayton Ponitz Tech (2-7 D3 R12), pick: L by 12 (73%)
Sep 08 (W3) W 18-10 H #660 Lockland (3-6 D7 R28), pick: W by 8 (66%)
Sep 13 (W4) W 44-28 H #686 Cincinnati Riverview East Academy (3-6 D6 R24), pick: W by 19 (85%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-55 H #173 Cincinnati Taft (7-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 0-20 A #396 Cincinnati Western Hills (6-3 D1 R4), pick: L by 16 (83%)
Oct 06 (W7) L 14-18 A #630 Cincinnati Shroder (3-6 D4 R16), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 6-32 H #474 Cincinnati Woodward (3-6 D3 R12), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 20 (W9) L 0-26 A #427 Cincinnati Aiken (6-3 D4 R16), pick: L by 21 (90%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #698 Cincinnati Gamble Montessori (3-6 D7 R28), pick: W by 14 (81%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#105 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 4-6
5.99 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-19%, 4W-81%

Playoff scenarios
81% W 5.99 pts, out
19% L 4.46 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 75.4 (3-6, #616, D3 #103) out
W8: 75.6 (3-5, #616, D3 #103) out
W7: 77.1 (3-4, #611, D3 #101) out
W6: 81.8 (3-3, #575, D3 #98) 1% , proj. out
W5: 82.1 (3-2, #567, D3 #98) 1% , proj. out
W4: 81.4 (3-1, #572, D3 #98) 3% , proj. out
W3: 79.1 (2-1, #599, D3 #101) 1% , proj. out
W2: 78.8 (1-1, #605, D3 #102) 1% , proj. out
W1: 72.0 (0-1, #652, D3 #106) 1% , proj. out
W0: 82.7 (0-0, #598, D3 #102) 3% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 77.8 (3-7)