Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#312 Cincinnati Northwest (3-6) 104.7

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#65 of 107 in Division III
#16 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-49 H #28 Miamisburg (7-2 D1 R3), pick: L by 16 (78%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 9-28 A #120 Cincinnati Turpin (6-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 17 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 20-14 A #519 Cincinnati Withrow (1-8 D2 R8), pick: W by 15 (79%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 13-50 A #91 Trenton Edgewood (7-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-59 H #9 Cincinnati Winton Woods (8-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 13-49 A #154 Morrow Little Miami (7-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 19 (87%)
Oct 05 (W7) W 21-20 H #295 Hamilton Ross (4-5 D3 R12), pick: L by 4 (61%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 12-36 A #197 Cincinnati Mount Healthy (5-4 D3 R12), pick: L by 9 (71%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 33-0 H #432 Oxford Talawanda (2-7 D2 R8), pick: W by 7 (67%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #112 Harrison (6-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 16 (84%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#13 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-84%, 4W-16%

Playoff scenarios
16% W 10.20 pts, out
84% L 6.20 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 104.7 (3-6, #312, D3 #65) out
W8: 102.8 (2-6, #334, D3 #66) out
W7: 104.4 (2-5, #312, D3 #63) 1% , proj. out
W6: 100.0 (1-5, #367, D3 #71) 1% , proj. out
W5: 101.8 (1-4, #346, D3 #65) 1% , proj. out
W4: 101.3 (1-3, #350, D3 #71) 1% , proj. out
W3: 101.3 (1-2, #346, D3 #68) 1% , proj. out
W2: 105.2 (0-2, #294, D3 #59) 3% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 106.7 (0-1, #278, D3 #63) 10% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 110.1 (0-0, #250, D3 #59) 16% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 107.4 (4-6)