Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#208 Cincinnati Taft (4-1) 111.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#22 of 106 in Division IV
#7 of 26 in Region 16
Eitel team page
Region 16 projections
Region 16 playoff probabilities
Region 16 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 34-0 H #447 Dayton Thurgood Marshall (0-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 12-14 H #99 Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 10 (68%)
Sep 06 (W3) W 44-0 H #437 Cincinnati Archbishop McNicholas (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 13 (75%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 56-0 H #660 Cincinnati Shroder (0-5 D4 R16), pick: W by 35 (97%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 55-0 A #567 Cincinnati Hughes (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Sep 29 (W6) A Mergenthaler MD, [W by 8, 67%]
Oct 05 (W7) H Scott (Covington) KY, [W by 29, 95%]
Oct 12 (W8) A #398 Cincinnati Western Hills (3-2 D1 R4), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #452 Cincinnati Woodward (2-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #422 Cincinnati Aiken (3-2 D4 R16), pick: W by 17 (84%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#86 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 8-2
22.43 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected #4 seed in R16 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-4%, 7W-20%, 8W-43%, 9W-33%

Playoff chance
95% now (need 7-3), 60% home
99% with a win in next game, and 88% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 15.07 (11.94-19.26) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out
7W: 18.75 (15.26-22.79) 91% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)
8W: 22.43 (18.59-26.92) 99% in, 61% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
9W: 26.36 (22.37-30.10) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #3 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
33% WWWWW 26.36 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#5) London 18%

Worst realistic scenario
3.5% LWWWL 18.24 pts, 83% in, 3% home (#7, range #3-out) Clinton-Massie 31%

Most likely other scenarios
18% LWWWW 21.67 pts, 99% in, 46% home (#5, range #2-out) Indian Hill 27%
10% WWLWW 23.14 pts, 100% in, 73% home (#4, range #1-#7) Indian Hill 24%
6.9% WWWLW 23.29 pts, 100% in, 76% home (#4, range #1-#8) Indian Hill 24%
6.6% WWWWL 22.93 pts, 99% in, 69% home (#4, range #1-out) Indian Hill 23%
5.3% LWLWW 18.45 pts, 93% in, 5% home (#6, range #3-out) Clinton-Massie 24%
3.6% LWWLW 18.60 pts, 94% in, 3% home (#6, range #3-out) Clinton-Massie 28%
(14% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Whitehall-Yearling (4-1 D2 R7) over London (5-0 D4 R16)
Week 9: Dayton Thurgood Marshall (0-5 D3 R12) over Dayton Dunbar (1-3 D3 R12)
Week 7: Wheelersburg (4-1 D5 R20) over Waverly (5-0 D4 R16)
Week 7: Columbus Grandview Heights (5-0 D6 R23) over London (5-0 D4 R16)
Week 10: Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0 D4 R16) over Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
21% Cincinnati Indian Hill (4-1)
19% Waverly (5-0)
14% London (5-0)
8% Springfield Shawnee (4-1)
8% Cincinnati Wyoming (5-0)

Championship probabilities
3.1% Region 16 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 112.3 (3-1, #199, D4 #21) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 70% home, proj. #3
W3: 112.1 (2-1, #199, D4 #20) 97% (bubble if 6-4), 74% home, proj. #3
W2: 111.0 (1-1, #208, D4 #22) 98% (need 6-4), 77% home, proj. #3
W1: 110.8 (1-0, #217, D4 #26) 98% (need 6-4), 73% home, proj. #2
W0: 107.6 (0-0, #279, D4 #34) 93% (bubble if 5-5), 69% home, proj. #3
Last year 112.3 (8-3)