Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#117 Cincinnati Turpin (3-2) 120.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#34 of 108 in Division II
#9 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-14 A #232 New Philadelphia (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 11 (69%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 28-9 H #344 Cincinnati Northwest (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 17 (81%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-29 A #61 Troy (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 19-16 A #175 Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 34-37 H #39 Kings Mills Kings (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 14 (78%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #270 Cincinnati Walnut Hills (1-4 D1 R4), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #228 Loveland (1-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 5 (62%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #89 Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 7 (66%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #513 Cincinnati Withrow (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 30 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #111 Milford (3-2 D1 R4), pick: L by 3 (58%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#27 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
15.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-2%, 5W-17%, 6W-39%, 7W-33%, 8W-9%

Playoff chance
17% now (need 8-2), 1% home
19% with a win in next game, and 9% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 15.25 (11.15-21.55) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 18.90 (15.50-24.35) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 23.27 (21.05-26.35) 97% in, 12% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
8.7% WWWWW 23.27 pts, 97% in, 12% home (#6, range #2-out) Troy 19%

Worst realistic scenario
8.4% WLLWL 11.65 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% WWLWL 13.60 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
15% WWLWW 18.45 pts, 11% in (out, range #5-out) Kings 40%
12% WWWWL 18.55 pts, 18% in (out, range #5-out) Kings 48%
6.5% WLLWW 16.50 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
5.4% WLWWL 16.55 pts, 1% in (out, range #6-out)
4.9% LWLWL 11.75 pts, out
(20% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Indianapolis Bishop Chatard IN (6-0 D4) over Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 10: Hilliard Darby (3-2 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 7: Cincinnati Northwest (1-4 D3 R12) over Hamilton Ross (2-3 D3 R12)
Week 9: New Philadelphia (2-3 D3 R9) over Zanesville (3-2 D3 R11)
Week 6: Milford (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
28% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
18% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
17% Troy (4-1)
11% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
7% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 118.8 (3-1, #140, D2 #40) 19% (need 8-2), 3% home, proj. out
W3: 117.7 (2-1, #142, D2 #42) 12% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W2: 122.2 (2-0, #95, D2 #25) 54% (bubble if 7-3), 22% home, proj. #7
W1: 122.3 (1-0, #90, D2 #25) 59% (need 7-3), 29% home, proj. #6
W0: 114.9 (0-0, #188, D2 #55) 21% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home, proj. out
Last year 112.2 (4-6)