Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#30 Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1) 134.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#6 of 108 in Division II
#2 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 3-13 H #16 Trotwood-Madison (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 42-14 H #175 Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4), pick: W by 17 (80%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 52-45 A #85 Upper Arlington (2-3 D1 R2), pick: W by 10 (69%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 59-6 A #447 Dayton Thurgood Marshall (0-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 33 (97%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 59-7 A #344 Cincinnati Northwest (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 29 (95%)
Sep 28 (W6) H Indianapolis Bishop Chatard IN, [W by 2, 55%]
Oct 05 (W7) H #68 Trenton Edgewood (5-0 D2 R8), pick: W by 11 (74%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #14 Cincinnati Elder (3-2 D1 R4), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #62 Columbus St Francis DeSales (3-2 D3 R11), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #7 Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (4-1 D1 R4), pick: L by 6 (64%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#42 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
20.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #8 seed in R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-3%, 5W-17%, 6W-36%, 7W-31%, 8W-12%

Playoff chance
67% now (bubble if 6-4), 29% home
84% with a win in next game, and 53% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 16.15 (12.00-20.70) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 20.70 (15.10-25.45) 65% in, 2% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
7W: 25.15 (20.20-29.95) 99% in, 52% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
8W: 29.45 (23.75-34.60) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)
9W: 33.90 (29.50-38.15) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
3.4% WWLWW 29.83 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Little Miami 16%

Worst realistic scenario
3.1% LLLLL 11.60 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
15% LWLWL 21.20 pts, 72% in, 3% home (#8, range #3-out) Kings 31%
12% WWLWL 25.25 pts, 99% in, 56% home (#4, range #1-out) Troy 16%
6.5% LLLWL 15.60 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.5% LWLLL 17.05 pts, 6% in (out, range #6-out) Kings 50%
6.5% LWWWL 25.00 pts, 99% in, 51% home (#4, range #1-out) Chillicothe 17%
5.6% WWWWL 29.10 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Dublin Scioto 14%
(42% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 8: Upper Arlington (2-3 D1 R2) over Marysville (3-2 D1 R2)
Week 6: Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Hillsboro (5-0 D3 R11) over Chillicothe (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 9: Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4) over Milford (3-2 D1 R4)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
15% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
14% Troy (4-1)
14% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
12% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
12% Chillicothe (4-1)

Championship probabilities
13% Region 8 champ
1.1% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 135.1 (3-1, #28, D2 #6) 73% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home, proj. #3
W3: 135.6 (2-1, #24, D2 #5) 88% (need 6-4), 58% home, proj. #3
W2: 136.9 (1-1, #21, D2 #5) 87% (bubble if 5-5), 58% home, proj. #2
W1: 135.1 (0-1, #22, D2 #5) 79% (need 6-4), 49% home, proj. #4
W0: 140.7 (0-0, #15, D2 #3) 92% (need 6-4), 74% home, proj. #2
Last year 150.9 (13-2)