Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#513 Cincinnati Withrow (0-5) 87.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#100 of 108 in Division II
#25 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 22 (W1) L 0-31 N #452 Cincinnati Woodward (2-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 16 (78%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 6-36 H #56 Cincinnati Princeton (4-1 D1 R4), later won by forfeit
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-20 H #344 Cincinnati Northwest (1-4 D3 R12), pick: L by 15 (79%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-24 A #228 Loveland (1-4 D2 R8), pick: L by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 12-47 H #89 Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 31 (96%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #39 Kings Mills Kings (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 38 (99%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #111 Milford (3-2 D1 R4), pick: L by 31 (96%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #175 Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #117 Cincinnati Turpin (3-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 30 (96%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #270 Cincinnati Walnut Hills (1-4 D1 R4), pick: L by 19 (87%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#61 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
3.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-75%, 2W-23%, 3W-2%

Best realistic scenario
0.3% LWLLW 8.75 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
75% LLLLL 3.25 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
14% LLLLW 5.00 pts, out
5.7% LLWLL 5.85 pts, out
2.2% LLLWL 6.90 pts, out
1.6% LWLLL 7.65 pts, out
0.8% LLWLW 7.60 pts, out
0.4% LLLWW 8.60 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 87.1 (1-3, #517, D2 #101) out
W3: 87.2 (0-3, #520, D2 #102) out
W2: 88.7 (0-2, #511, D2 #104) out
W1: 87.6 (0-1, #525, D2 #103) 1% , proj. out
W0: 101.9 (0-0, #372, D2 #91) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 95.3 (1-9)