Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#336 Dayton Belmont (1-4) 102.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#83 of 108 in Division II
#20 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 8-43 A #61 Troy (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 17 (79%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 16-30 H #108 Franklin Bishop Fenwick (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 14 (75%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-38 H #145 Sidney (3-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 10 (71%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 6-50 A #62 Columbus St Francis DeSales (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 27 (93%)
Sep 20 (W5) W 26-21 H #447 Dayton Thurgood Marshall (0-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 29 (W6) H #420 Dayton Dunbar (1-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 7 (67%)
Oct 06 (W7) A #43 Columbus Bishop Hartley (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 31 (96%)
Oct 11 (W8) A Dohn Community OH, [W by 37, 98%]
Oct 19 (W9) A #621 Dayton Ponitz Tech (0-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 25 (W10) H #547 Dayton Meadowdale (2-2 D4 R16), pick: W by 22 (90%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#21 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 94
Projected record 5-5
9.25 Harbin points (divisor 94)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-6%, 4W-38%, 5W-53%, 6W-2%

Best realistic scenario
2.2% WWWWW 13.10 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
3.7% LLWWL 4.64 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
52% WLWWW 9.25 pts, out
26% LLWWW 6.15 pts, out
6.9% WLWWL 7.53 pts, out
4.3% WLWLW 8.22 pts, out
2.0% LLWLW 5.33 pts, out
(3% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 102.3 (0-4, #338, D2 #84) out
W3: 102.3 (0-3, #333, D2 #83) 1% , proj. out
W2: 104.4 (0-2, #308, D2 #80) 1% , proj. out
W1: 104.4 (0-1, #298, D2 #78) 2% , proj. out
W0: 108.3 (0-0, #268, D2 #77) 7% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 118.3 (9-1)