Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#272 Dayton Carroll (4-1) 106.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#56 of 107 in Division III
#14 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) W 49-13 A #540 Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 2 (53%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 25-24 A #280 Beavercreek (1-4 D1 R3), pick: L by 13 (74%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 42-0 H Indianapolis Washington IN (1-5 D6)
Sep 14 (W4) W 37-28 H #437 Cincinnati Archbishop McNicholas (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 13 (77%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 30-61 A #72 Dayton Chaminade Julienne (5-0 D3 R12), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #195 Hamilton Badin (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #47 Kettering Archbishop Alter (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #269 St Bernard Roger Bacon (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #361 Cincinnati Purcell Marian (4-1 D5 R20), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #108 Franklin Bishop Fenwick (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 14 (79%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#89 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
11.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-8%, 5W-30%, 6W-38%, 7W-19%, 8W-4%

Playoff chance
10% now (need 8-2), 1% home
23% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 11.10 (8.70-15.25) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 14.35 (11.80-20.10) 27% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 17.85 (15.55-21.30) 98% in, 7% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.4% WLWWW 17.50 pts, 98% in, 2% home (#7, range #4-out) Archbishop Alter 30%

Worst realistic scenario
8.4% LLLLL 5.25 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% LLWWL 10.55 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
14% LLLWL 8.10 pts, out
9.4% LLWLL 7.80 pts, out
7.6% WLWWL 13.80 pts, 17% in (out, range #7-out) Archbishop Alter 43%
6.4% WLLWL 11.30 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
4.8% LLWWW 14.20 pts, 17% in (out, range #6-out) Chaminade Julienne 45%
(32% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8) over West Carrollton (1-4 D3 R12)
Week 10: Troy (4-1 D2 R8) over Piqua (3-2 D3 R12)
Week 7: Sidney (3-2 D2 R8) over Tipp City Tippecanoe (3-2 D3 R12)
Week 9: Van Wert (3-2 D4 R14) over Celina (4-1 D3 R12)
Week 9: Richfield Revere (3-2 D3 R9) over Bay Village Bay (5-0 D3 R10)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
30% Dayton Chaminade Julienne (5-0)
27% Kettering Archbishop Alter (4-1)
13% Trotwood-Madison (3-2)
12% Wapakoneta (4-1)
6% Vandalia Butler (3-2)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.7 (4-0, #241, D3 #50) 27% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W3: 108.4 (3-0, #249, D3 #50) 23% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 107.8 (2-0, #257, D3 #52) 20% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W1: 101.4 (1-0, #346, D3 #74) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 98.0 (0-0, #421, D3 #86) 1% , proj. out
Last year 93.3 (1-9)