Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#420 Dayton Dunbar (1-3) 96.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#84 of 107 in Division III
#19 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 25 (W1) L 0-35 N #62 Columbus St Francis DeSales (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 23 (87%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-49 A #184 Cincinnati Oak Hills (3-2 D1 R4), pick: L by 6 (62%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 6-28 A #205 Cincinnati Mount Healthy (2-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 9 (69%)
Sep 13 (W4) W 42-33 H #621 Dayton Ponitz Tech (0-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 26 (93%)
Sep 22 (W5) H #452 Cincinnati Woodward (2-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 6 (63%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #336 Dayton Belmont (1-4 D2 R8), pick: L by 7 (67%)
Oct 06 (W7) A #547 Dayton Meadowdale (2-2 D4 R16), pick: W by 13 (78%)
Oct 12 (W8) A COF Academy OH, [W by 10, 73%]
Oct 20 (W9) A #447 Dayton Thurgood Marshall (0-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 1 (50%)
Oct 26 (W10) H West Toronto Prep (via Silverthorn CI) ON (0-4 D3) , no pick

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#39 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 97
Projected record 5-5
8.32 Harbin points (divisor 97)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-14%, 4W-28%, 5W-31%, 6W-18%, 7W-4%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 10.36 (7.01-14.07) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 12.61 (10.14-15.29) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
4.2% WWWWWW 12.61 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
3.0% LLWWLL 3.61 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
7.5% WLWWWW 10.00 pts, out
6.4% WLWWLW 7.80 pts, out
4.5% LLWWWW 7.05 pts, out
3.9% WLWWLL 6.48 pts, out
3.7% LLWWLW 4.83 pts, out
3.6% WLWWWL 8.63 pts, out
(63% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.5 (1-3, #414, D3 #83) 1% , proj. out
W3: 101.1 (0-3, #347, D3 #69) 1% , proj. out
W2: 104.6 (0-2, #303, D3 #62) 7% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 107.9 (0-1, #254, D3 #56) 26% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home, proj. out
W0: 110.5 (0-0, #246, D3 #57) 20% (need 8-2), 5% home, proj. out
Last year 113.2 (8-4)