Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#39 Kings Mills Kings (4-1) 132.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#9 of 108 in Division II
#3 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 17-14 H #105 Lebanon (3-2 D1 R4), pick: W by 3 (56%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 27-24 A #87 Liberty Township Lakota East (2-3 D1 R4), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 9-42 A Covington Catholic KY (6-0 D2)
Sep 14 (W4) W 35-14 H #89 Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 37-34 A #117 Cincinnati Turpin (3-2 D2 R8), pick: W by 14 (78%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #513 Cincinnati Withrow (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 38 (99%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #270 Cincinnati Walnut Hills (1-4 D1 R4), pick: W by 24 (92%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #111 Milford (3-2 D1 R4), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #228 Loveland (1-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #175 Cincinnati West Clermont (2-3 D1 R4), pick: W by 21 (89%)

Lists on which the team appears
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#4 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
31.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #1 seed in R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-1%, 7W-8%, 8W-36%, 9W-54%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 95% home
99% with a win in next game

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 24.85 (20.20-29.45) 99% in, 63% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
8W: 27.95 (23.35-32.45) 100% in, 97% home, proj. #2 (#1-#7)
9W: 31.65 (28.90-34.35) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
54% WWWWW 31.65 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#3) Anderson 12%

Worst realistic scenario
2.5% WWLWL 23.55 pts, 100% in, 40% home (#5, range #1-#8) Troy 16%

Most likely other scenarios
17% WWLWW 26.70 pts, 100% in, 94% home (#3, range #1-#7) Chillicothe 15%
7.7% WWWWL 28.45 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#6) Little Miami 14%
7.0% WWWLW 29.30 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) Little Miami 12%
4.8% WLWWW 29.30 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) Little Miami 11%
(7% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (4-1 D1 R4) over Cincinnati La Salle (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 7: Liberty Township Lakota East (2-3 D1 R4) over West Chester Lakota West (2-3 D1 R4)
Week 7: Lebanon (3-2 D1 R4) over Centerville (0-5 D1 R3)
Week 10: Lebanon (3-2 D1 R4) over Springboro (2-3 D1 R3)
Week 10: Liberty Township Lakota East (2-3 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Sycamore (3-2 D1 R4)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
12% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)
11% Cincinnati Anderson (4-1)
11% Chillicothe (4-1)
10% Dublin Scioto (4-1)
9% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)

Championship probabilities
19% Region 8 champ
0.9% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 133.9 (3-1, #32, D2 #7) 99% (need 6-4), 91% home, proj. #1
W3: 130.6 (2-1, #44, D2 #9) 87% (bubble if 6-4), 53% home, proj. #1
W2: 128.8 (2-0, #49, D2 #11) 96% (bubble if 6-4), 79% home, proj. #1
W1: 124.6 (1-0, #72, D2 #17) 81% (bubble if 6-4), 52% home, proj. #3
W0: 123.8 (0-0, #82, D2 #18) 73% (need 6-4), 44% home, proj. #6
Last year 122.9 (5-5)