Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#131 Morrow Little Miami (5-0) 119.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#40 of 108 in Division II
#11 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 49-13 A #527 West Carrollton (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 16 (78%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 49-21 H #343 Mount Orab Western Brown (2-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 11 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 20-7 A #312 Goshen (3-2 D3 R11), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 41-0 H #205 Cincinnati Mount Healthy (2-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 48-16 A #427 Oxford Talawanda (2-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #344 Cincinnati Northwest (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 18 (86%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #126 Harrison (2-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 3 (57%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #351 Hamilton Ross (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #68 Trenton Edgewood (5-0 D2 R8), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #398 Cincinnati Western Hills (3-2 D1 R4), pick: W by 22 (90%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks
Most improved teams
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#101 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 8-2
21.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #7 seed in R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-1%, 7W-13%, 8W-39%, 9W-38%, 10W-9%

Playoff chance
80% now (need 8-2), 32% home
83% with a win in next game, and 63% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 15.70 (12.95-20.15) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 18.55 (14.30-23.55) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 21.45 (17.60-27.65) 77% in, 6% home, proj. #7 (#2-out)
9W: 25.33 (21.05-31.10) 99% in, 55% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
10W: 29.60 (26.65-33.30) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
8.9% WWWWW 29.60 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) Edgewood 17%

Worst realistic scenario
2.8% WLWLL 17.55 pts, 14% in (out, range #6-out) Kings 63%

Most likely other scenarios
26% WLWLW 21.00 pts, 70% in, 2% home (#8, range #2-out) Kings 31%
23% WWWLW 24.50 pts, 99% in, 36% home (#5, range #1-out) Edgewood 18%
11% WLWWW 26.10 pts, 100% in, 81% home (#3, range #1-#8) Chillicothe 15%
4.3% LLWLW 18.80 pts, 27% in (out, range #5-out) Kings 39%
3.8% WLLLW 18.15 pts, 16% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Kings 46%
3.4% LWWLW 22.55 pts, 92% in, 9% home (#7, range #2-out) Kings 21%
(17% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: West Carrollton (1-4 D3 R12) over Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8)
Week 9: Mount Orab Western Brown (2-3 D2 R8) over Wilmington (3-2 D3 R11)
Week 8: Mount Orab Western Brown (2-3 D2 R8) over New Richmond (4-1 D3 R11)
Week 6: Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 7: Goshen (3-2 D3 R11) over Wilmington (3-2 D3 R11)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
17% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
15% Troy (4-1)
15% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
12% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
12% Chillicothe (4-1)

Championship probabilities
1.3% Region 8 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 118.0 (4-0, #145, D2 #43) 70% (need 8-2), 25% home, proj. #8
W3: 111.5 (3-0, #207, D2 #58) 31% (need 8-2), 5% home, proj. out
W2: 108.1 (2-0, #253, D2 #70) 12% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 103.5 (1-0, #312, D2 #83) 8% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 103.9 (0-0, #330, D2 #87) 9% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 107.4 (7-3)