Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#343 Mount Orab Western Brown (2-3) 102.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#84 of 108 in Division II
#21 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 28-30 H #227 Hillsboro (5-0 D3 R11), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 21-49 A #131 Morrow Little Miami (5-0 D2 R8), pick: L by 11 (70%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-13 A #351 Hamilton Ross (2-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 42-36 A #258 Jackson (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 20 (87%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 49-23 H #554 Bethel-Tate (1-4 D5 R20), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #312 Goshen (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #44 Clarksville Clinton-Massie (4-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #261 New Richmond (4-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #342 Wilmington (3-2 D3 R11), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #417 Batavia (5-0 D4 R16), pick: W by 4 (60%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#88 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
12.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-6%, 3W-24%, 4W-38%, 5W-25%, 6W-6%

Playoff chance
1% now
2% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 15.20 (12.35-18.95) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 18.65 (16.70-21.90) 11% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
5.1% WLWWW 18.30 pts, 6% in (out, range #6-out) Kings 39%

Worst realistic scenario
6.1% LLLLL 5.70 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
10% LLLWW 11.65 pts, out
8.9% LLLLW 8.80 pts, out
7.5% WLLWW 14.55 pts, out
7.2% LLWWW 15.45 pts, out
6.9% WLLLW 11.85 pts, out
6.7% LLLWL 8.65 pts, out
(42% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
38% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
19% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
15% Troy (4-1)
9% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
6% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 101.5 (1-3, #348, D2 #85) 1% , proj. out
W3: 94.7 (0-3, #436, D2 #97) 1% , proj. out
W2: 95.6 (0-2, #425, D2 #97) 1% , proj. out
W1: 94.4 (0-1, #453, D2 #100) 1% , proj. out
W0: 100.2 (0-0, #391, D2 #96) 6% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 95.3 (2-8)