Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#295 New Carlisle Tecumseh (3-2) 105.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#76 of 108 in Division II
#19 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 31-0 H #463 Fairborn (0-5 D2 R8), pick: L by 2 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 28-49 H #160 Vandalia Butler (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 2 (53%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-26 A #113 Bellbrook (5-0 D3 R11), pick: L by 19 (85%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 34-14 A #424 Springfield Northwestern (3-2 D4 R16), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-32 A #431 Urbana (1-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 9 (69%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #304 Springfield Shawnee (4-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #207 Bellefontaine (3-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #413 Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 10 (73%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #240 Plain City Jonathan Alder (3-2 D4 R16), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #324 Springfield Kenton Ridge (4-1 D4 R16), pick: W by 3 (58%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#90 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
16.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-15%, 5W-32%, 6W-32%, 7W-15%, 8W-3%

Playoff chance
8% now (need 8-2), 1% home
14% with a win in next game, and 2% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 16.55 (13.05-19.60) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 19.90 (17.05-22.55) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 23.20 (21.60-24.90) 96% in, 10% home, proj. #6 (#3-out)

Best realistic scenario
2.8% WWWWW 23.20 pts, 96% in, 10% home (#6, range #3-out) Kings 16%

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% LLLLL 6.90 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
8.7% LLWLW 13.10 pts, out
7.5% WLWLW 16.55 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
6.3% LLWLL 9.55 pts, out
5.7% WLWLL 12.95 pts, out
5.3% LWWLW 16.45 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
4.9% LLWWW 16.20 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(57% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Cincinnati Elder (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati La Salle (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Fairborn (0-5 D2 R8) over Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8)
Week 6: Milford (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati Anderson (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 10: Hilliard Darby (3-2 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
33% Kings Mills Kings (4-1)
18% Trenton Edgewood (5-0)
14% Troy (4-1)
10% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
7% Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 105.0 (2-2, #296, D2 #78) 5% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 100.7 (1-2, #355, D2 #85) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 101.8 (1-1, #347, D2 #85) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 107.4 (1-0, #261, D2 #72) 23% (need 8-2), 4% home, proj. out
W0: 102.1 (0-0, #368, D2 #90) 5% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
Last year 99.0 (2-8)