Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#427 Oxford Talawanda (2-3) 95.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#93 of 108 in Division II
#22 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 34-12 A #530 Camden Preble Shawnee (1-4 D5 R20), pick: L by 2 (53%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 7-38 A #195 Hamilton Badin (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 32-20 H #558 Eaton (0-5 D4 R16), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 3-34 A #261 New Richmond (4-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 16-48 H #131 Morrow Little Miami (5-0 D2 R8), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #126 Harrison (2-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 20 (88%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #205 Cincinnati Mount Healthy (2-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #68 Trenton Edgewood (5-0 D2 R8), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #344 Cincinnati Northwest (1-4 D3 R12), pick: L by 5 (62%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #351 Hamilton Ross (2-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 6 (64%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#92 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
5.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-32%, 3W-43%, 4W-20%, 5W-4%

Best realistic scenario
3.4% LWLLW 8.15 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
32% LLLLL 3.10 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
17% LLLLW 5.43 pts, out
15% LLLWL 4.80 pts, out
8.1% LLLWW 7.15 pts, out
6.0% LWLLL 5.55 pts, out
3.5% WLLLL 6.45 pts, out
3.0% LWLWL 7.50 pts, out
(12% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 97.7 (2-2, #394, D2 #90) 1% , proj. out
W3: 100.9 (2-1, #354, D2 #84) 2% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 102.1 (1-1, #342, D2 #83) 3% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 102.3 (1-0, #327, D2 #87) 6% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 97.8 (0-0, #429, D2 #99) 2% , proj. out
Last year 93.3 (1-9)