Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#540 Riverside Stebbins (0-5) 84.7

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#102 of 108 in Division II
#26 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 23 (W1) L 13-49 H #272 Dayton Carroll (4-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 2 (53%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 19-49 A #362 Greenville (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 22 (87%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-47 H #324 Springfield Kenton Ridge (4-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 13 (76%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 0-62 H #61 Troy (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 34 (97%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 0-52 A #171 Tipp City Tippecanoe (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 29 (95%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #463 Fairborn (0-5 D2 R8), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #162 Xenia (3-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 31 (97%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #16 Trotwood-Madison (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 41 (99%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #105 Lebanon (3-2 D1 R4), pick: L by 32 (97%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #527 West Carrollton (1-4 D3 R12), pick: L by 1 (50%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#67 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
1.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-36%, 1W-47%, 2W-16%, 3W-1%

Best realistic scenario
14% WLLLW 2.15 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
36% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
27% LLLLW 1.00 pts, out
19% WLLLL 1.15 pts, out
(5% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.6 (0-4, #533, D2 #102) out
W3: 86.0 (0-3, #534, D2 #103) out
W2: 88.8 (0-2, #509, D2 #103) out
W1: 87.4 (0-1, #529, D2 #104) out
W0: 94.8 (0-0, #479, D2 #104) 1% , proj. out
Last year 89.4 (1-9)