Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#68 Trenton Edgewood (5-0) 126.8

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#18 of 108 in Division II
#6 of 27 in Region 8
Eitel team page
Region 8 projections
Region 8 playoff probabilities
Region 8 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 49-7 A #492 Monroe (0-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 14 (75%)
Sep 01 (W2) W 28-9 H #246 Franklin (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 11 (71%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 35-10 H #195 Hamilton Badin (3-2 D3 R12), pick: W by 4 (59%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 50-13 H #344 Cincinnati Northwest (1-4 D3 R12), pick: W by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-35 A #126 Harrison (2-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 4 (60%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #351 Hamilton Ross (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #30 Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #427 Oxford Talawanda (2-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #131 Morrow Little Miami (5-0 D2 R8), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #205 Cincinnati Mount Healthy (2-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 17 (84%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#86 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
27.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #2 seed in R8 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-6%, 8W-29%, 9W-48%, 10W-16%

Playoff chance
93% now (bubble if 7-3), 65% home
94% with a win in next game, and 81% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 19.10 (15.90-24.20) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 22.75 (18.30-28.15) 92% in, 21% home, proj. #6 (#1-out)
9W: 27.00 (22.65-31.50) 100% in, 89% home, proj. #3 (#1-#8)
10W: 31.00 (27.50-34.00) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #1 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
16% WWWWW 31.00 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#1, range #1-#4) Little Miami 14%

Worst realistic scenario
3.0% WLWLL 18.60 pts, 17% in (out, range #6-out) Kings 52%

Most likely other scenarios
37% WLWWW 27.05 pts, 100% in, 92% home (#3, range #1-#7) Chillicothe 15%
15% WLWLW 21.75 pts, 84% in, 3% home (#7, range #2-out) Kings 26%
6.5% WLWWL 24.10 pts, 99% in, 39% home (#5, range #1-out) Troy 15%
6.2% WWWLW 25.75 pts, 100% in, 63% home (#4, range #1-#8) Chillicothe 17%
3.0% WWWWL 27.80 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#2, range #1-#5) Anderson 15%
2.9% LLWWW 24.25 pts, 100% in, 46% home (#5, range #1-#8) La Salle 16%
(11% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Hilliard Bradley (4-1 D1 R3) over Dublin Scioto (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 6: Cincinnati Archbishop Moeller (4-1 D1 R4) over Cincinnati La Salle (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 7: Franklin (1-4 D3 R12) over Germantown Valley View (3-2 D4 R16)
Week 6: Indianapolis Bishop Chatard IN (6-0 D4) over Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1 D2 R8)
Week 10: Cincinnati Elder (3-2 D1 R4) over Cincinnati La Salle (4-1 D2 R8)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
15% Morrow Little Miami (5-0)
13% Chillicothe (4-1)
11% Cincinnati La Salle (4-1)
11% Cincinnati Winton Woods (4-1)
10% Troy (4-1)

Championship probabilities
6.8% Region 8 champ
0.3% Division 2 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 125.5 (4-0, #74, D2 #19) 80% (need 8-2), 42% home, proj. #6
W3: 125.6 (3-0, #74, D2 #19) 86% (bubble if 7-3), 50% home, proj. #4
W2: 120.3 (2-0, #113, D2 #33) 56% (bubble if 7-3), 17% home, proj. out
W1: 118.0 (1-0, #125, D2 #37) 52% (need 7-3), 19% home, proj. #8
W0: 118.1 (0-0, #148, D2 #46) 46% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home, proj. out
Last year 123.9 (8-2)