Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#132 Vandalia Butler (6-3) 120.3

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#23 of 107 in Division III
#5 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 19-42 A #112 Harrison (6-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 49-28 A #330 New Carlisle Tecumseh (5-4 D2 R8), pick: L by 2 (53%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 38-12 H #402 Wilmington (4-5 D3 R11), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Sep 13 (W4) L 16-43 H #14 Clayton Northmont (8-1 D1 R3), pick: L by 23 (90%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 13-7 H #106 Xenia (6-3 D2 R8), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Sep 28 (W6) W 37-21 A #408 Greenville (3-6 D3 R12), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 0-25 H #45 Troy (8-1 D2 R8), pick: L by 11 (75%)
Oct 12 (W8) W 27-25 H #169 Piqua (6-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 1 (51%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 27-9 A #188 Sidney (4-5 D2 R8), pick: L by 1 (54%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #216 Tipp City Tippecanoe (4-5 D3 R12), pick: W by 8 (69%)

Lists on which the team appears
Key games by region

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#12 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 7-3
23.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #3 seed in R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-31%, 7W-69%

Playoff chance
100% now (need 6-4), 86% home
100% with a win in next game, and 100% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 20.55 (19.45-21.70) 100% in, 60% home, proj. #4 (#3-#7)
7W: 23.30 (22.20-24.45) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #3 (#2-#5)

Playoff scenarios
69% W 23.30 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#3, range #2-#5) Badin 35%
31% L 20.55 pts, 100% in, 60% home (#4, range #3-#7) Badin 36%

Teams to root for
Week 10: Huber Heights Wayne (6-3 D1 R3) over Trotwood-Madison (6-3 D3 R12)
Week 10: St Marys Memorial (9-0 D4 R14) over Wapakoneta (8-1 D3 R12)
Week 10: Kettering Archbishop Alter (8-1 D3 R12) over Dayton Chaminade Julienne (7-2 D3 R12)
Week 10: Dayton Carroll (6-3 D3 R12) over Franklin Bishop Fenwick (7-2 D3 R12)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
36% Hamilton Badin (6-3)
29% Dayton Chaminade Julienne (7-2)
18% Trotwood-Madison (6-3)
8% Cincinnati Mount Healthy (5-4)
5% Wapakoneta (8-1)

Championship probabilities
5.3% Region 12 champ
0.6% Division 3 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 120.3 (6-3, #132, D3 #23) in and 86% home, proj. #3
W8: 117.0 (5-3, #154, D3 #27) 99% (need 5-5), 15% home, proj. #6
W7: 115.4 (4-3, #170, D3 #34) 76% (need 5-5), 9% home, proj. #6
W6: 115.7 (4-2, #164, D3 #32) 82% (need 5-5), 27% home, proj. #6
W5: 116.3 (3-2, #160, D3 #31) 84% (need 5-5), 32% home, proj. #4
W4: 114.3 (2-2, #181, D3 #37) 54% (need 5-5), 12% home, proj. #6
W3: 113.7 (2-1, #182, D3 #40) 45% (need 5-5), 11% home, proj. #8
W2: 113.1 (1-1, #185, D3 #38) 40% (need 5-5), 9% home, proj. out
W1: 107.2 (0-1, #267, D3 #59) 13% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 113.3 (0-0, #209, D3 #47) 27% (need 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
Last year 113.0 (4-6)