Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#527 West Carrollton (1-4) 86.1

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#96 of 107 in Division III
#24 of 26 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 13-49 H #131 Morrow Little Miami (5-0 D2 R8), pick: L by 16 (78%)
Sep 01 (W2) L 27-28 H #566 Dayton Northridge (2-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 7 (64%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 47-42 A #530 Camden Preble Shawnee (1-4 D5 R20), pick: L by 16 (81%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 26-56 H #171 Tipp City Tippecanoe (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 27 (93%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 34-35 A #362 Greenville (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 21 (89%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #16 Trotwood-Madison (3-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 43 (99%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #35 Kettering Fairmont (4-1 D1 R3), pick: L by 39 (99%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #162 Xenia (3-2 D2 R8), pick: L by 30 (96%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #463 Fairborn (0-5 D2 R8), pick: L by 11 (74%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #540 Riverside Stebbins (0-5 D2 R8), pick: W by 1 (50%)

Lists on which the team appears
Biggest upsets

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#78 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
2.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-28%, 2W-52%, 3W-19%, 4W-1%

Best realistic scenario
0.9% LLWWW 7.53 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
28% LLLLL 1.80 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
37% LLLLW 2.80 pts, out
17% LLLWW 3.95 pts, out
13% LLLWL 2.95 pts, out
1.8% LLWLW 6.35 pts, out
1.3% LLWLL 5.35 pts, out
0.7% LLWWL 6.45 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 84.2 (1-3, #549, D3 #97) out
W3: 84.8 (1-2, #554, D3 #97) out
W2: 77.9 (0-2, #611, D3 #103) out
W1: 82.5 (0-1, #574, D3 #101) out
W0: 86.0 (0-0, #565, D3 #98) out
Last year 83.0 (1-9)