Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#402 Wilmington (4-5) 97.1

Updated 20-Oct-2018 11:30PM
Week 9 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#81 of 107 in Division III
#24 of 27 in Region 11
Eitel team page
Region 11 projections
Region 11 playoff probabilities
Region 11 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 26-50 H #240 Germantown Valley View (5-4 D4 R16), pick: L by 10 (68%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 38-7 H #542 Washington Court House Miami Trace (2-7 D3 R11), pick: W by 10 (69%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 12-38 A #132 Vandalia Butler (6-3 D3 R12), pick: L by 7 (65%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 35-26 A #466 Blanchester (4-5 D5 R20), pick: W by 15 (80%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 59-0 H #681 Sabina East Clinton (0-9 D5 R20), pick: W by 32 (97%)
Sep 28 (W6) L 30-56 H #265 New Richmond (6-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Oct 05 (W7) L 28-48 A #257 Goshen (6-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 9 (71%)
Oct 12 (W8) L 49-64 H #378 Batavia (6-3 D4 R16), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Oct 19 (W9) W 38-37 A #328 Mount Orab Western Brown (3-6 D2 R8), pick: L by 14 (81%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #51 Clarksville Clinton-Massie (8-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 31 (97%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#78 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
7.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R11 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-98%, 5W-2%

Playoff scenarios
1.6% W 12.05 pts, out
98% L 7.25 pts, out

Weekly ranking & projection history
W9: 97.1 (4-5, #402, D3 #81) out
W8: 93.5 (3-5, #452, D3 #88) out
W7: 96.2 (3-4, #418, D3 #85) out
W6: 98.6 (3-3, #388, D3 #79) out
W5: 102.2 (3-2, #341, D3 #62) 3% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W4: 101.7 (2-2, #347, D3 #69) 4% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 102.7 (1-2, #328, D3 #64) 3% , proj. out
W2: 107.4 (1-1, #264, D3 #54) 10% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 106.4 (0-1, #279, D3 #64) 7% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 111.7 (0-0, #228, D3 #52) 23% (bubble if 7-3), 8% home, proj. out
Last year 112.9 (6-4)