Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#585 Ashtabula Edgewood (2-3) 80.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#96 of 106 in Division IV
#25 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-54 A #451 Ashtabula Lakeside (1-4 D2 R5), pick: L by 23 (86%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 14-8 H #595 Jefferson Area (0-5 D4 R13), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 12-62 A #94 Hubbard (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 31 (95%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 30-6 A #694 Newbury (0-5 D7 R25), pick: W by 22 (88%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-40 H #486 Ravenna Southeast (2-3 D4 R13), pick: L by 1 (50%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #373 Brookfield (1-4 D6 R21), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #439 Cortland Lakeview (1-4 D4 R13), pick: L by 17 (84%)
Oct 11 (W8) H #608 Ashtabula St John School (4-1 D7 R25), pick: W by 10 (72%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #219 Struthers (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 25 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #382 Niles McKinley (1-4 D3 R9), pick: L by 5 (63%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#91 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
4.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-23%, 3W-48%, 4W-24%, 5W-5%

Best realistic scenario
6.9% LWWLL 6.40 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
23% LLLLL 1.55 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
35% LLWLL 4.40 pts, out
6.8% LLWLW 6.15 pts, out
6.0% WLWLL 6.15 pts, out
4.4% LWLLL 3.35 pts, out
4.0% LLLLW 3.25 pts, out
3.9% WLLLL 3.30 pts, out
(10% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 85.0 (2-2, #543, D4 #89) 1% , proj. out
W3: 85.1 (1-2, #549, D4 #89) out
W2: 86.3 (1-1, #539, D4 #90) 1% , proj. out
W1: 82.3 (0-1, #576, D4 #97) out
W0: 84.8 (0-0, #577, D4 #99) 1% , proj. out
Last year 80.1 (2-8)