Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#407 Chagrin Falls (0-5) 97.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#58 of 106 in Division IV
#19 of 26 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-43 A #110 Kirtland (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 13 (73%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 14-41 H #75 Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 8 (66%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 14-24 H #339 Streetsboro (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 9 (68%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-21 A #107 Perry (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 22 (88%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-35 H #215 Rootstown (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 4 (59%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #216 Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #603 Painesville Harvey (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 23 (91%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #334 Chesterland West Geauga (1-4 D4 R13), pick: L by 3 (58%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #303 Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #348 Geneva (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 3 (57%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#4 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
3.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-3%, 1W-23%, 2W-38%, 3W-27%, 4W-8%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
3.4% LWWWW 9.20 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
3.0% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
17% LWLLL 1.00 pts, out
11% LWWLL 2.65 pts, out
9.6% LWLLW 3.10 pts, out
9.4% LWLWL 5.00 pts, out
6.8% LWWLW 5.15 pts, out
6.2% LWWWL 6.65 pts, out
(34% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 101.2 (0-4, #351, D4 #49) 1% , proj. out
W3: 99.4 (0-3, #375, D4 #56) 1% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 105.0 (0-2, #299, D4 #42) 12% (bubble if 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 108.1 (0-1, #249, D4 #32) 34% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home, proj. out
W0: 112.5 (0-0, #222, D4 #25) 48% (bubble if 6-4), 23% home, proj. #6
Last year 114.5 (5-5)