Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#53 Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0) 129.4

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#6 of 107 in Division III
#3 of 28 in Region 9
Eitel team page
Region 9 projections
Region 9 playoff probabilities
Region 9 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 41-28 H #218 Willoughby South (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 19 (82%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 42-7 H #334 Chesterland West Geauga (1-4 D4 R13), pick: W by 15 (77%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 42-0 H Lorne Park ON (2-1 D3)
Sep 15 (W4) W 65-12 A #505 Cleveland Central Catholic (0-5 D3 R10), pick: W by 29 (95%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 35-0 A #191 Bedford (1-4 D2 R5), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #153 Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10), pick: W by 8 (68%)
Oct 06 (W7) A #114 Cleveland Benedictine (2-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 9 (70%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #317 Cuyahoga Falls Walsh Jesuit (0-5 D2 R5), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #125 Mentor Lake Catholic (3-2 D3 R9), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #2 Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Lists on which the team appears
Best team performances
Best teams in playoff danger

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#86 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 98
Projected record 8-2
20.52 Harbin points (divisor 98)
Projected out of R9 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-3%, 7W-18%, 8W-42%, 9W-35%, 10W-2%

Playoff chance
57% now (bubble if 8-2), 14% home
69% with a win in next game, and 25% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 14.42 (11.00-19.37) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 17.57 (12.83-24.41) 7% in, 0% home, proj. out
8W: 20.52 (15.16-27.97) 48% in, 3% home, proj. out
9W: 23.77 (19.54-31.83) 96% in, 31% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
10W: 29.53 (26.26-32.43) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
2.2% WWWWW 29.53 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#2, range #1-#5) East 14%

Worst realistic scenario
3.6% LWWLL 16.86 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)

Most likely other scenarios
33% WWWWL 23.67 pts, 95% in, 28% home (#6, range #1-out) Buckeye 16%
17% WLWWL 20.83 pts, 51% in, 2% home (#8, range #2-out) Canfield 24%
12% LWWWL 19.96 pts, 40% in, 1% home (out, range #3-out) Canfield 28%
11% WWWLL 20.32 pts, 43% in, 1% home (out, range #2-out) Aurora 25%
6.1% LLWWL 17.37 pts, 3% in (out, range #6-out)
5.4% WLWLL 17.52 pts, 3% in (out, range #5-out)
(10% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Lorne Park ON (2-1 D3) over
Week 8: Lorne Park ON (2-1 D3) over
Week 9: Lorne Park ON (2-1 D3) over
Week 7: Lorne Park ON (2-1 D3) over
Week 6: Lorne Park ON (2-1 D3) over

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Canfield (5-0)
16% Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0)
16% Aurora (4-1)
13% Medina Buckeye (4-1)
10% Akron East (4-1)

Championship probabilities
11% Region 9 champ
2.5% Division 3 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 128.5 (4-0, #53, D3 #5) 57% (need 8-2), 21% home, proj. #7
W3: 128.4 (3-0, #56, D3 #8) 53% (need 8-2), 23% home, proj. #8
W2: 127.5 (2-0, #53, D3 #6) 50% (bubble if 7-3), 25% home, proj. out
W1: 125.4 (1-0, #67, D3 #8) 49% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home, proj. #8
W0: 127.4 (0-0, #69, D3 #8) 44% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home, proj. out
Last year 133.4 (9-3)