Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#334 Chesterland West Geauga (1-4) 102.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#46 of 106 in Division IV
#13 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 20-19 H #169 Chardon (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 8 (65%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-42 A #53 Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 15 (77%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-37 H #75 Chagrin Falls Kenston (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 6 (63%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-10 A #303 Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17), pick: W by 7 (66%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 8-16 H #348 Geneva (2-3 D3 R9), pick: W by 11 (73%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #603 Painesville Harvey (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 28 (95%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #107 Perry (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 15 (80%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #407 Chagrin Falls (0-5 D4 R14), pick: W by 3 (58%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #216 Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 8 (69%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #188 Canfield South Range (3-2 D5 R17), pick: L by 4 (59%)

Lists on which the team appears
Toughest schedules

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#6 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 3-7
6.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
1W-1%, 2W-20%, 3W-42%, 4W-29%, 5W-7%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 1% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.70 (5.70-14.80) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 13.05 (9.55-17.70) 12% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
4.3% WLWWW 12.70 pts, 4% in (out, range #7-out)

Worst realistic scenario
17% WLLLL 4.45 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
25% WLWLL 5.95 pts, out
11% WLWLW 8.40 pts, out
10% WLWWL 9.90 pts, out
6.9% WLLLW 7.15 pts, out
6.8% WLLWL 8.50 pts, out
3.3% WWWLL 10.10 pts, out
(16% some other outcome)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
43% Steubenville (4-1)
26% Poland Seminary (5-0)
21% Hubbard (5-0)
6% Perry (4-1)
4% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 106.1 (1-3, #278, D4 #37) 3% (need 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 110.8 (1-2, #215, D4 #23) 23% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
W2: 113.5 (1-1, #181, D4 #19) 52% (bubble if 6-4), 23% home, proj. out
W1: 112.1 (1-0, #198, D4 #23) 33% (bubble if 7-3), 13% home, proj. out
W0: 107.5 (0-0, #281, D4 #35) 15% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 104.2 (3-7)