Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#499 Conneaut (3-2) 89.2

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#82 of 106 in Division IV
#22 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-41 A #268 Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 11 (70%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 49-26 H #627 Cleveland John Adams (1-3 D2 R5), pick: W by 9 (67%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 69-0 A Lakeview PA (1-4 D5)
Sep 14 (W4) W 46-6 H Iroquois PA (0-4 D6)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-55 H Wilmington PA (4-1 D6)
Sep 28 (W6) A Seneca PA, [W by 21, 89%]
Oct 06 (W7) A Sharpsville PA, [L by 10, 72%]
Oct 12 (W8) A Northwestern PA, [L by 5, 62%]
Oct 19 (W9) H Conneaut Area PA, [L by 5, 60%]
Oct 26 (W10) H #421 Orwell Grand Valley (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 6 (63%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#96 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 94
Projected record 5-5
8.36 Harbin points (divisor 94)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-2%, 4W-23%, 5W-38%, 6W-27%, 7W-8%

Playoff chance
5% now (bubble if 7-3), 1% home
5% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 11.63 (8.86-15.83) 2% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 15.01 (12.72-18.36) 45% in, 0% home, proj. out

Best realistic scenario
2.5% WLWWW 15.32 pts, 49% in (out, range #5-out) Steubenville 33%

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% LLLLL 3.84 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% WLLLL 4.88 pts, out
11% WLWLL 8.31 pts, out
10% WLLLW 8.57 pts, out
8.3% WLLWL 8.04 pts, out
6.0% WLWLW 12.06 pts, 3% in (out, range #7-out)
5.7% WWLLL 7.83 pts, out
(36% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Cleveland John Adams (1-3 D2 R5) over Cleveland East Technical (0-4 D3 R10)
Week 7: Canton Central Catholic (2-3 D5 R17) over Carrollton (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 10: Akron East (4-1 D3 R9) over Akron Buchtel (3-2 D4 R13)
Week 10: Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21) over Girard (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 9: Seneca PA (0-4 D5) over

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
37% Steubenville (4-1)
25% Poland Seminary (5-0)
16% Hubbard (5-0)
15% Perry (4-1)
6% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 89.8 (3-1, #494, D4 #80) 4% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 90.1 (2-1, #495, D4 #83) 49% (bubble if 8-2), 7% home, proj. #7
W2: 88.3 (1-1, #514, D4 #83) 47% (need 8-2), 11% home, proj. #5
W1: 83.4 (0-1, #565, D4 #94) 15% (bubble if 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 88.2 (0-0, #540, D4 #91) 66% (bubble if 7-3), 27% home, proj. #3
Last year 84.2 (5-5)