Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#439 Cortland Lakeview (1-4) 95.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#66 of 106 in Division IV
#20 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 14-9 H #350 Warren Howland (0-5 D3 R9), pick: L by 3 (55%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 7-29 A #271 Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21), pick: W by 15 (78%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 13-49 H #268 Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 7-48 H #94 Hubbard (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 20 (87%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 7-48 A #382 Niles McKinley (1-4 D3 R9), pick: W by 7 (65%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #595 Jefferson Area (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #585 Ashtabula Edgewood (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #60 Poland Seminary (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #642 Warren Champion (0-5 D5 R17), pick: W by 25 (93%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #219 Struthers (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 10 (73%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#16 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
4.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-5%, 3W-30%, 4W-54%, 5W-11%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
8.9% WWLWW 7.50 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
2.3% LLLWL 2.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
48% WWLWL 4.55 pts, out
12% LWLWL 4.05 pts, out
9.7% WLLWL 2.85 pts, out
6.6% WWLLL 3.70 pts, out
2.2% LWLWW 6.95 pts, out
(10% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 100.4 (1-3, #356, D4 #50) 1% , proj. out
W3: 99.6 (1-2, #372, D4 #55) 1% , proj. out
W2: 104.0 (1-1, #317, D4 #44) 9% (need 8-2), 2% home, proj. out
W1: 116.9 (1-0, #138, D4 #13) 62% (need 8-2), 32% home, proj. #3
W0: 114.2 (0-0, #199, D4 #20) 43% (bubble if 7-3), 17% home, proj. #6
Last year 120.5 (9-2)