Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#317 Cuyahoga Falls Walsh Jesuit (0-5) 103.9

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#81 of 108 in Division II
#21 of 27 in Region 5
Eitel team page
Region 5 projections
Region 5 playoff probabilities
Region 5 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-3 H #209 Mayfield (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 0-35 A #27 Akron St Vincent-St Mary (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 16 (80%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 20-25 A #185 Columbus Bishop Watterson (2-3 D3 R11), pick: L by 13 (75%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 40-42 H St Francis NY (2-2 D3)
Sep 21 (W5) L 14-51 H #155 Cleveland Heights (3-2 D1 R1), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #125 Mentor Lake Catholic (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 13 (78%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #153 Parma Padua Franciscan (4-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 9 (71%)
Oct 12 (W8) A #53 Chardon Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (5-0 D3 R9), pick: L by 22 (90%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #2 Akron Archbishop Hoban (5-0 D2 R5), pick: L by 34 (98%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #114 Cleveland Benedictine (2-3 D2 R5), pick: L by 11 (74%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#48 of 108 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 1-9
3.18 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R5 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-48%, 1W-40%, 2W-11%, 3W-1%

Best realistic scenario
4.0% WWLLL 6.05 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
48% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% LWLLL 3.23 pts, out
13% WLLLL 2.87 pts, out
8.1% LLLLW 2.22 pts, out
2.7% LWLLW 5.44 pts, out
2.5% LLWLL 4.54 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 108.4 (0-4, #250, D2 #71) 1% , proj. out
W3: 109.4 (0-3, #235, D2 #67) 1% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 109.2 (0-2, #233, D2 #64) 1% (bubble if 5-5), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 112.5 (0-1, #195, D2 #55) 3% (need 6-4), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 116.2 (0-0, #173, D2 #50) 12% (need 6-4), 3% home, proj. out
Last year 112.5 (2-8)