Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#94 Hubbard (5-0) 123.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#6 of 106 in Division IV
#3 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) W 63-13 H #177 Alliance (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 48-32 H #226 Girard (4-1 D4 R13), pick: W by 8 (65%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 62-12 H #585 Ashtabula Edgewood (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 31 (95%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 48-7 A #439 Cortland Lakeview (1-4 D4 R13), pick: W by 20 (87%)
Sep 21 (W5) W 42-7 A #350 Warren Howland (0-5 D3 R9), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #382 Niles McKinley (1-4 D3 R9), pick: W by 29 (96%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #595 Jefferson Area (0-5 D4 R13), pick: W by 34 (98%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #219 Struthers (3-2 D4 R13), pick: W by 15 (81%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #60 Poland Seminary (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #217 Youngstown East (3-2 D2 R5), pick: W by 15 (81%)

Lists on which the team appears
Winning & losing streaks
Best team performances
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#44 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 9-1
22.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #4 seed in R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
7W-4%, 8W-25%, 9W-50%, 10W-20%

Playoff chance
99% now (need 7-3), 73% home
99% with a win in next game, and 96% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
7W: 16.20 (13.80-21.10) 84% in, 5% home, proj. #7 (#3-out)
8W: 19.10 (15.95-26.20) 99% in, 36% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
9W: 22.20 (19.40-27.80) 100% in, 85% home, proj. #4 (#1-#7)
10W: 26.80 (24.25-29.40) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#4)

Best realistic scenario
20% WWWWW 26.80 pts, 100% in, 100% home (#2, range #1-#4) East Liverpool 14%

Worst realistic scenario
2.5% WWLLL 15.85 pts, 77% in, 2% home (#7, range #3-out) Steubenville 28%

Most likely other scenarios
38% WWWLW 21.98 pts, 100% in, 81% home (#4, range #1-#7) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 37%
11% WWLLW 18.55 pts, 99% in, 24% home (#5, range #3-out) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 34%
9.5% WWWLL 19.20 pts, 100% in, 35% home (#5, range #2-#8) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 38%
5.4% WWWWL 23.95 pts, 100% in, 99% home (#3, range #1-#5) East Liverpool 17%
5.0% WWLWW 23.60 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#3, range #1-#5) Struthers 18%
2.6% LWWLW 19.70 pts, 99% in, 49% home (#5, range #2-out) Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy 37%
(6% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 10: Akron Manchester (4-1 D5 R17) over Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 6: Orrville (4-1 D5 R17) over Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 8: Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14) over Perry (4-1 D4 R13)
Week 8: Ashtabula Edgewood (2-3 D4 R13) over Ashtabula St John School (4-1 D7 R25)
Week 8: Alliance (2-3 D3 R9) over Carrollton (3-2 D4 R13)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
27% Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1)
14% Perry (4-1)
12% East Liverpool (3-2)
9% Girard (4-1)
7% Carrollton (3-2)

Championship probabilities
11% Region 13 champ
2.3% Division 4 state champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 123.2 (4-0, #94, D4 #9) 99% (need 7-3), 80% home, proj. #2
W3: 121.0 (3-0, #107, D4 #9) 94% (bubble if 7-3), 64% home, proj. #2
W2: 120.0 (2-0, #119, D4 #10) 89% (bubble if 7-3), 64% home, proj. #3
W1: 117.3 (1-0, #137, D4 #12) 56% (bubble if 7-3), 28% home, proj. #7
W0: 113.2 (0-0, #210, D4 #23) 36% (need 7-3), 13% home, proj. out
Last year 110.5 (5-5)