Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#595 Jefferson Area (0-5) 79.0

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#99 of 106 in Division IV
#27 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 6-34 H #421 Orwell Grand Valley (4-1 D5 R17), pick: L by 4 (58%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 8-14 A #585 Ashtabula Edgewood (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 0-42 A #60 Poland Seminary (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 34 (97%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 15-48 H #219 Struthers (3-2 D4 R13), pick: L by 24 (91%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 6-56 A #226 Girard (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 27 (94%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #439 Cortland Lakeview (1-4 D4 R13), pick: L by 18 (85%)
Oct 05 (W7) H #94 Hubbard (5-0 D4 R13), pick: L by 34 (98%)
Oct 11 (W8) A #271 Youngstown Liberty (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 26 (94%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #382 Niles McKinley (1-4 D3 R9), pick: L by 13 (77%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #268 Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0 D5 R17), pick: L by 26 (94%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#22 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 0-10
0.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-63%, 1W-31%, 2W-5%

Best realistic scenario
4.5% LLLLW 3.55 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
63% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% WLLLL 2.00 pts, out
7.3% LLLWL 1.55 pts, out
3.0% LLWLL 3.40 pts, out
(6% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 81.0 (0-4, #577, D4 #97) out
W3: 81.6 (0-3, #578, D4 #100) out
W2: 82.4 (0-2, #568, D4 #94) out
W1: 86.3 (0-1, #541, D4 #92) 1% , proj. out
W0: 93.2 (0-0, #494, D4 #82) 1% , proj. out
Last year 88.5 (1-9)