Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#386 Mantua Crestwood (4-1) 98.3

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#48 of 106 in Division V
#14 of 27 in Region 17
Eitel team page
Region 17 projections
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Region 17 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 7-24 A #172 Cuyahoga Falls Cuyahoga Valley Christian Academy (4-1 D4 R13), pick: L by 7 (64%)
Aug 31 (W2) W 47-3 H #684 Atwater Waterloo (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 18 (82%)
Sep 07 (W3) W 21-6 H #528 Smithville (1-4 D6 R21), pick: W by 7 (64%)
Sep 14 (W4) W 48-7 H Western Reserve Academy OH (2-3 D5)
Sep 21 (W5) W 32-0 A #601 Louisville St Thomas Aquinas (1-4 D7 R25), pick: W by 17 (84%)
Sep 28 (W6) A #122 Mogadore (4-1 D6 R21), pick: L by 26 (93%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #402 Garrettsville Garfield (4-1 D5 R17), pick: W by 1 (53%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #215 Rootstown (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 9 (70%)
Oct 19 (W9) A #486 Ravenna Southeast (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 8 (69%)
Oct 26 (W10) H #477 Youngstown Valley Christian School (4-1 D7 R25), pick: W by 7 (65%)

Lists on which the team appears
Most improved teams

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#102 of 106 in Division 5

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 99
Projected record 6-4
10.58 Harbin points (divisor 99)
Projected out of R17 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-4%, 5W-21%, 6W-38%, 7W-29%, 8W-7%

Playoff chance
19% now (bubble if 7-3), 4% home
58% with a win in next game, and 16% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 10.58 (7.35-15.18) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 13.46 (10.32-18.86) 38% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 16.73 (14.26-19.97) 98% in, 39% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)

Best realistic scenario
4.9% LWWWW 16.63 pts, 98% in, 33% home (#5, range #1-out) Gilmour Academy 23%

Worst realistic scenario
3.9% LLLLL 5.74 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
16% LLLWW 10.03 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
15% LWLWW 12.80 pts, 23% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Manchester 33%
8.9% LLLLW 8.11 pts, out
7.8% LWLLW 10.94 pts, 1% in (out, range #5-out)
6.8% LLLWL 7.61 pts, out
6.3% LWLWL 10.33 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
(31% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 7: Smithville (1-4 D6 R21) over Dalton (1-4 D7 R25)
Week 10: Western Reserve Academy OH (2-3 D5) over Gates Mills Hawken (0-5 D5 R17)
Week 10: Pepper Pike Orange (5-0 D4 R14) over Beachwood (4-1 D5 R17)
Week 7: Atwater Waterloo (1-4 D6 R21) over North Jackson Jackson-Milton (1-4 D7 R25)
Week 9: Western Reserve Academy OH (2-3 D5) over

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
20% Akron Manchester (4-1)
20% Wickliffe (5-0)
16% Gates Mills Gilmour Academy (5-0)
11% Leavittsburg LaBrae (5-0)
9% Orrville (4-1)

Championship probabilities
0.5% Region 17 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 96.5 (3-1, #415, D5 #53) 10% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W3: 95.2 (2-1, #429, D5 #58) 5% (bubble if 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W2: 91.1 (1-1, #490, D5 #74) 3% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out
W1: 89.0 (0-1, #507, D5 #75) 3% (bubble if 7-3), 1% home, proj. out
W0: 95.0 (0-0, #474, D5 #67) 15% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. out
Last year 86.5 (1-7)