Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#525 Mogadore Field (0-5) 86.6

Updated 22-Sep-2018 10:02PM
Week 5 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#85 of 106 in Division IV
#24 of 27 in Region 13
Eitel team page
Region 13 projections
Region 13 playoff probabilities
Region 13 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 24 (W1) L 0-25 A #215 Rootstown (5-0 D6 R21), pick: L by 17 (79%)
Aug 31 (W2) L 34-41 H #486 Ravenna Southeast (2-3 D4 R13), pick: W by 3 (55%)
Sep 07 (W3) L 7-40 A #264 Akron Ellet (4-1 D2 R5), pick: L by 26 (92%)
Sep 14 (W4) L 10-41 H #193 Norton (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 25 (92%)
Sep 21 (W5) L 17-21 A #335 Akron Coventry (3-2 D3 R9), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Sep 28 (W6) H #339 Streetsboro (2-3 D4 R13), pick: L by 23 (91%)
Oct 05 (W7) A #242 Peninsula Woodridge (1-4 D4 R13), pick: L by 24 (92%)
Oct 12 (W8) H #465 Akron Springfield (1-4 D3 R9), pick: L by 12 (75%)
Oct 19 (W9) H #395 Lodi Cloverleaf (2-3 D3 R9), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 26 (W10) A #174 Ravenna (4-1 D3 R9), pick: L by 29 (95%)

Strength of schedule
(no future games or playoff games)
#20 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 1-9
2.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R13 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-32%, 1W-43%, 2W-21%, 3W-4%

Best realistic scenario
3.1% WLLWL 4.70 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
32% LLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
19% LLWLL 1.70 pts, out
12% LLLWL 2.10 pts, out
7.8% WLLLL 2.65 pts, out
7.7% LLWWL 3.80 pts, out
4.6% WLWLL 4.30 pts, out
2.6% LWLLL 2.65 pts, out
(11% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 82.3 (0-4, #567, D4 #95) out
W3: 82.1 (0-3, #575, D4 #99) out
W2: 82.1 (0-2, #575, D4 #98) out
W1: 86.8 (0-1, #536, D4 #91) 1% , proj. out
W0: 90.7 (0-0, #517, D4 #86) 1% , proj. out
Last year 82.8 (0-10)